AU$
US Treasury yields reversed course after their rise this week, encouraged by weaker data releases overnight. The 10-year rate is down 7bps to 4.54% with a slightly flatter curve
31st May 24, 7:43am
US Treasury yields reversed course after their rise this week, encouraged by weaker data releases overnight. The 10-year rate is down 7bps to 4.54% with a slightly flatter curve
A continued move higher in global bond yields and tepid demand for US treasury supply weighed on investor risk appetite. Global equities fell with European indices close to 1% weaker
30th May 24, 7:50am
A continued move higher in global bond yields and tepid demand for US treasury supply weighed on investor risk appetite. Global equities fell with European indices close to 1% weaker
A surprise jump in US consumer confidence and weak demand for US Treasuries at the 2 and 5-year auctions drove up US rates, the 10-year rate rising over 7bps. The USD rose
29th May 24, 7:43am
A surprise jump in US consumer confidence and weak demand for US Treasuries at the 2 and 5-year auctions drove up US rates, the 10-year rate rising over 7bps. The USD rose
US & UK holidays tone down markets. Some dovish comments from key ECB members pushed down European yields; US equity futures are slightly higher, and US 10-year Treasury futures are little changed
28th May 24, 7:39am
US & UK holidays tone down markets. Some dovish comments from key ECB members pushed down European yields; US equity futures are slightly higher, and US 10-year Treasury futures are little changed
Roger J Kerr is pleased the sticky inflation problem is getting acknowledged by the RBNZ. And he reviews where the US Fed is at in its assessments of inflation-control progress
27th May 24, 9:11am
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Roger J Kerr is pleased the sticky inflation problem is getting acknowledged by the RBNZ. And he reviews where the US Fed is at in its assessments of inflation-control progress
Moderation in US consumers’ inflation expectations underpins investor risk appetite. US Treasuries ended little-changed while the US dollar was weaker. Global equity markets were mixed in the absence of first tier economic data or fresh catalysts
27th May 24, 7:33am
Moderation in US consumers’ inflation expectations underpins investor risk appetite. US Treasuries ended little-changed while the US dollar was weaker. Global equity markets were mixed in the absence of first tier economic data or fresh catalysts
Much stronger than expected US PMI data drove US rates and the USD higher and US equities lower. This saw the NZD lose earlier gains, but the spillover from the hawkish RBNZ policy update continued, with domestic rates higher
24th May 24, 7:51am
Much stronger than expected US PMI data drove US rates and the USD higher and US equities lower. This saw the NZD lose earlier gains, but the spillover from the hawkish RBNZ policy update continued, with domestic rates higher
FOMC minutes for the May meeting were mildly hawkish. An upward surprise to UK CPI data contributed to sharp unwinding of BOE rate cut expectations. BNZ pushes back NZ rate cut expectation to February 2025
23rd May 24, 7:41am
FOMC minutes for the May meeting were mildly hawkish. An upward surprise to UK CPI data contributed to sharp unwinding of BOE rate cut expectations. BNZ pushes back NZ rate cut expectation to February 2025
More hawkish commentary from Fed speakers hasn’t perturbed the rates market, with US Treasury yields easing. Lower Canadian CPI inflation increases chance of BoC rate cut next month
22nd May 24, 7:45am
More hawkish commentary from Fed speakers hasn’t perturbed the rates market, with US Treasury yields easing. Lower Canadian CPI inflation increases chance of BoC rate cut next month
US Treasury yields up slightly, US equities up modestly and modest currency movements. More action in other markets, including record highs for copper and gold; NZ ETS carbon price slumps
21st May 24, 7:48am
US Treasury yields up slightly, US equities up modestly and modest currency movements. More action in other markets, including record highs for copper and gold; NZ ETS carbon price slumps
Roger J Kerr says the constant stream of weaker economic outcomes in New Zealand has not resulted in a weaker NZ dollar over the last 12 months because NZ interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer, relative to US interest rates
20th May 24, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr says the constant stream of weaker economic outcomes in New Zealand has not resulted in a weaker NZ dollar over the last 12 months because NZ interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer, relative to US interest rates
China announced measures to stabilise the property market boosting domestic stocks. They eased property lending requirements allowing more flexibility for minimum mortgage rates. UST yields moved higher, fully reversing the post-CPI decline
20th May 24, 7:21am
China announced measures to stabilise the property market boosting domestic stocks. They eased property lending requirements allowing more flexibility for minimum mortgage rates. UST yields moved higher, fully reversing the post-CPI decline
US Treasuries see yields steadily higher, reversing the fall seen following the US CPI release the previous night. This hasn’t perturbed equity markets, with the Dow Jones index breaking 40,000 for the first time
17th May 24, 7:52am
US Treasuries see yields steadily higher, reversing the fall seen following the US CPI release the previous night. This hasn’t perturbed equity markets, with the Dow Jones index breaking 40,000 for the first time
The widely anticipated US CPI data matched consensus expectations, a relief for investors after three consecutive upside surprises. The market brought forward expectations for Fed rate cuts triggering a strong rally across global asset markets
16th May 24, 8:10am
The widely anticipated US CPI data matched consensus expectations, a relief for investors after three consecutive upside surprises. The market brought forward expectations for Fed rate cuts triggering a strong rally across global asset markets
Markets remain in a holding pattern ahead of key US CPI release. Much higher than expected US PPI in April, but only a short-lived market reaction, given downward revisions. Biden announces range of tariffs on Chinese imports
15th May 24, 8:11am
Markets remain in a holding pattern ahead of key US CPI release. Much higher than expected US PPI in April, but only a short-lived market reaction, given downward revisions. Biden announces range of tariffs on Chinese imports
Consolidation everywhere as markets await US CPI. Various NZ economic data released continued the recent theme of an economy going backwards and inflation pressure receding
14th May 24, 7:33am
Consolidation everywhere as markets await US CPI. Various NZ economic data released continued the recent theme of an economy going backwards and inflation pressure receding
Roger J Kerr sees a favourable case for further appreciation of the NZ dollar to the mid-0.6000s over coming months on the back of lower US interest rates (weaker USD) and higher Australian interest rates (stronger AUD)
13th May 24, 8:08am
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Roger J Kerr sees a favourable case for further appreciation of the NZ dollar to the mid-0.6000s over coming months on the back of lower US interest rates (weaker USD) and higher Australian interest rates (stronger AUD)
US treasury yields moved higher, despite weak consumer sentiment data, as inflation expectations rose. Currency markets were broadly stable. The CAD outperformed after strong labour market data reduced the chance of a June rate cut there
13th May 24, 7:28am
US treasury yields moved higher, despite weak consumer sentiment data, as inflation expectations rose. Currency markets were broadly stable. The CAD outperformed after strong labour market data reduced the chance of a June rate cut there
Much weaker than expected US initial jobless claims figures triggered lower US Treasury yields and a weaker USD, although moves have been modest. The BoE signalled a rate cut was soon coming
10th May 24, 7:47am
Much weaker than expected US initial jobless claims figures triggered lower US Treasury yields and a weaker USD, although moves have been modest. The BoE signalled a rate cut was soon coming
Global markets confined to narrow ranges in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. Comments that the BoJ is watching the impact of the weak yen on inflation failed to provide support
9th May 24, 7:42am
Global markets confined to narrow ranges in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. Comments that the BoJ is watching the impact of the weak yen on inflation failed to provide support
US Treasury yields continue to edge lower, with the 10-year rate down to a four-week low. The USD is stronger. A slightly less hawkish than expected RBA policy update sent Australian rates and the AUD lower
8th May 24, 8:13am
US Treasury yields continue to edge lower, with the 10-year rate down to a four-week low. The USD is stronger. A slightly less hawkish than expected RBA policy update sent Australian rates and the AUD lower
RBA policy update later today. Global rates are slightly lower. Yen weaker after last week’s strong recovery. Oil flat amidst ceasefire proposal talk for Gaza
7th May 24, 7:29am
RBA policy update later today. Global rates are slightly lower. Yen weaker after last week’s strong recovery. Oil flat amidst ceasefire proposal talk for Gaza
Roger J Kerr says American currency 'bulls' will again be reviewing their positions as unsustainable, adding to the general US dollar selling pressure
6th May 24, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr says American currency 'bulls' will again be reviewing their positions as unsustainable, adding to the general US dollar selling pressure
US labour market data the services ISM were weaker than expected. This rekindled hopes for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year which underpinned equities. US treasury yields declined sharply but rebounded off lows
6th May 24, 7:37am
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US labour market data the services ISM were weaker than expected. This rekindled hopes for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year which underpinned equities. US treasury yields declined sharply but rebounded off lows
US Treasury yields fall further in the aftermath of the Fed's policy update; US 10-year rate down to 4.57%, first rate cut fully priced brought forward to November. Yen strengthens in the aftermath of further official intervention
3rd May 24, 7:44am
US Treasury yields fall further in the aftermath of the Fed's policy update; US 10-year rate down to 4.57%, first rate cut fully priced brought forward to November. Yen strengthens in the aftermath of further official intervention