New Zealand house prices are the most expensive compared to people's incomes of any country in the developed world, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF's Global Housing Watch Report has ranked the House Price-to-Income Ratios of 31 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) and New Zealand sits at the top of the list, just ahead of Austria, Sweden, Germany and the UK, and well ahead of Australia which was ranked tenth on the list (see graphic below).
The trend appears to have been driven by strong growth in prices while income growth has remained subdued. The IMF report found that this country also had the second highest rate of house price growth over the last year of any country in the OECD, with only Sweden's house price inflation being higher.
Fourteen OECD countries had negative house price growth over the last year including, China, Brazil, Singapore, South Africa, Chile, Belgium, Italy and Indonesia.
The report also found that New Zealand had the fifth highest House Price-to-Rent Ratio in the OECD, beaten only by Turkey, Sweden, Germany and Israel, and well ahead of Australia which was thirteenth (refer graph below).
Labour''s Housing Spokesman Phil Twofold said New Zealand had won the gold medal for unaffordable housing.
He described it as "shameful" that New Zealand had the highest house price to income ratio and the second highest rate of house price increases in the OECD.
"It is no wonder that homelessness and unaffordable housing have replaced Lord of the Rings as the angle for international news on New Zealand," he said.
"We now have the most unaffordable housing, relative to incomes, out of 31 of the world's richest countries.
"National's willful negligence has allowed the housing crisis to spiral out of control.
"As a result, the country has become an international housing basket case," he said.
You can receive all of our property articles automatically by subscribing to our free email Property Newsletter. This will deliver all of our property-related articles, including auction results and interest rate updates, directly to your in-box 3-5 times a week. We don't share your details with third parties and you can unsubscribe at any time. To subscribe just click on this link, scroll down to "Property email newsletter"and enter your email address.
126 Comments
Not the type of solid rock we used to couple with integrity, ethics, dependability etc?
The "immovability' of these Government "Rock Stars" represents their complete absobtion with their personal and political agendas.
More representative of Shale rock - inclined to be shifty, can be dangerous to walk on!
Micky Hagar will no doubt attest to that!
The people who still support Key and his Inner Parliamentary Circle represent more self absorption - the " I'm All Right Jacks and Jill's!"
They haven't familiarised themselves with the eventual fate of many people in Hitler's Germany.
Back then, Prominent Protestant Pastor Martin Neimoller publicly opposed Hitler and Nazism, and for his courage he was rewarded with 7yrs in concentration camps.
He said:
" First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out -
Because I wasn't a Socialist
Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I didn't speak out -
Because I wasn't a Trade Unionist
Then they came for the Jews, and I didn't speak out -
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me - and there was no one left to speak for me"
JK was quick to "pacify" the relevant Auckland Chinese community who are sick of being burgled.
I guess it's just more "smart politics" to quickly 'shore-up' what looks like a significant supply of National votes?
Not so quick to respond with any "believable concern" around the homelessness issue!
House prices aren't going down until we control population growth and take NZ land and houses off the World market. Currently anyone anywhere in the World can by land and buildings up to 5 hectares no questions asked. Our government even tops up the rent.
As for the population growth we now have a huge deficit of infrastructure needed to support all these extra people and our largest city is gridlocked.
We can expect tax and rate increases to pay for this much needed infrastructure while our media continually repeat the mantra that what this country needs is more people.
Remember folks we are an export and tourism economy, we can't make many more dairy farms and the larger the population the more people these primary industries have to support.
Are we leaving a better country for our children than what we inherited?
You are welcome.
At the end of the day this is a sure sign of success, everyone wants to live here; the greatest country in the world! Well everyone from India and China that is. They're all welcome and once they are all here house prices will come down, mark my words. Even everyday Kiwis will be able to afford their very own caravan, tent or Favela. What a great country!
I've just been to Spain, believe me they're not doing anything right (same applies to Greece), they are hurting real bad with unemployment at 25%. The reason they're below 100 is that their real estate market has collapsed because nobody has any money. I don't know about Netherlands)
I always knew John Key had it in him to deliver prosperity through excellent strategic planning and smart implementation...................................................of course I was wrong
Bet the morning traffic is Horrendous in Auckland
Some how this idiot managed to squeeze in an extra 508,000 migrants over just 10 yrs (Yes most of them came in under John Keys watch)
I bet the nod was given to many Nats just what was going to happen (be allowed to happen) so they could all speculate early on and make a fortune. Of course there's no corruption in NZ because there's no real investigative media left to uncover it.
I believe there is a misunderstood economic incentive in the demographic trends. The accommodation supplement pays $100 per week more for the same rental house in Auckland than it does in, say, the Manawatu. This has resulted in businesses relocating to Auckland because their transport costs are lower but they effectively get a $100 per week subsidy per worker from the Government. This has resulted in a disproportionate growth in Auckland compared to the rest of the country. The issues of affordability is largely an Auckland issue.
The IMF have got it wrong more often that then have got it right.
Almost everyone is doing well, houses are selling left right and centre, which wouldn't be the case if they were "unaffordable".
They couldn't even get it right with the Brexit referendum and its consequences.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3698476/IMF-clowns-admit-got-wr…
Their latest comments should ignored and be confined to the dustbin of history.
.
"The IMF have got it wrong more often that then have got it right."
Judging by most of your comments, that's not hard to achieve. Even being wrong twice wouldn't surprise me if it outpaced your being right hit rate.
There is a big difference between retrospective data and forecast data. This being the former, it is normally pretty accurate. So, good try for using a piece on forecast error to justify errors in observed data however it doesn't really prove your point.
"Almost everyone is doing well, houses are selling left right and centre, which wouldn't be the case if they were "unaffordable"."
I'll agree, housing is 'affordable' currently. What it is not is sustainable at the current rates.
You seem to always miss this fundamental point and that's the difficult thing for any person of a logical perspective to reconcile.
Almost everyone is doing well, houses are selling left right and centre, which wouldn't be the case if they were "unaffordable".
jeeez... rare art sells like hot cakes...BUT u cant afford it.. very few can afford it ie.. It is unaffordable.
A little common sense would show that affordability is a fuction income... of debt service ability..etc.
Have you ever had a gander at a Japanese House price graph?
http://www.intmath.com/money-math/3-math-of-house-buying.php
A drop in house prices of similar magnitude would gut NZ's economy for years. More immigrants will only work for a few years until unemployment and infrastructure problems kick in. The problem with housing as an investment is, that because of the very high prices, it forces people to put all their eggs into the housing market basket, leaving first home buyers with no savings or any diversified investments. We are creating a high risk economy by allowing this bubble. Maybe it's time the government followed Canada's lead and imposed foreign investment taxes to kill speculation. Even the Chinese are trying to discourage speculation in their stock and property markets.
Sure, the natural rate is slightly positive but the example is highlighting what happens with and without demand. Not whether the rate is in decline, or not. The Japanese population has only been in decline for the last 10 years or so - not really pertinent to the area of concern on that graph.
this is where the next wave of buyers is coming from:
also NZ is now the Bronze choice as Canada has dropped the batton with a 15% tax on foreign buyers: (note to Noddy Smith just mentioning non-NZers doesn't make someone a racist)
https://list.juwai.com/news/2016/04/juwai-reveals-top-10-chinese-buyer-…
Logic says so.
History says so.
Current economic performance says so.
"On what basis is something sustainable today and not sustainable tomorrow?"
Ahh, well, I don't know... Perhaps ask petroleum producers. Ask Kodak. Ask Ice producers. Ask fisherman.
What a weird thing to posit.
More importantly though, in the case of debt it is real interest rates. As soon as interest rates increase, there is going to be a significant amount of stress placed on some nicely leveraged home owners. That is the long term issue.
Big Daddy's point is that, present interest rates going forward may not be low. In 10 years we may look back and think I can't believe we used to pay 4% on our mortgage when prevailing rates are say 2% on a mortgage. At the end of the day who controls interest rates, the answer is Western central banks, that have control courtesy of the government of the day. Are Western governments net debtors or creditors? At the end of the day indebted governments, will keep rates low, the alternative is higher debt servicing, larger government deficits and a shortage of funds to secure the next election. Everyone needs to review their assumptions, and look at the present situation with fresh eyes.
So he is taking the unlikely position, then?
To think it is possible for Governments to service debt with no real wealth generation ad infinitum is not that realistic. If it were the case, why did we ever have higher interest rates? Why did Germany ever bother invading Poland in 1939? Why isn't Argentina the richest country in the world?
Key to making money in markets is to always review your assumptions. You can have a narrative, but need to ensure market action backs this narrative. Appears your narrative is interest rates must rise. Why must interest rates rise? Who has been making money, those basing decisions on lower or higher interest rates via bond and other asset allocations.
So your argument is based on short term expectations, then? Well, these people have been making money in the last 6 months, they must be correct...
You would do better to expand your time horizon a bit further.
It is not solely the rise in interest rate/inflation/exchange that is worrying people, it is also our ability to consume. Currently this is propped up with nominal wealth and debt, which isn't the most sustainable practice in the long run.
Regarding interest rates remaining low this is not a short term expectation. In 2011 a prominent though UK banker (friend of a friend), who was a proponent of mandatory mark to market of financial institution assets prior to the GFC, advised not to fix any mortgage rates for at least a decade. The key is low rates change the picture completely.
I have now semi retired (born in the 1970s), but post GFC 2010 on through 2013 older workers (I was working in Australia) most mid 50s on, had large sums in Australian self managed super and were wondering where to invest. For the last 10yrs I had been the informal workplace investment adviser as I had, done well our of markets and side stepped the GFC. The advice was in all likelihood you will still be alive in 2040, now what income generating asset can be relied upon for income. The advice was if you can live off the net rent of 3 well located houses in major cities, then you need to secure these properties. Now in 2040, money in managed funds or bank deposits may have disappeared, but if you jumped in a time machine chances are these properties will still be standing and in demand as rentals. The other benefit is the rent will be adjusted for inflation. So the lifestyle generated by the net rents in 2010 should be similar in 2040. This change in demand patterns kicked off the property bull market, and speculation has left Auckland and Christchurch at risk of decline. But with an aging population the demand fundamentals have changed. Also if you are waiting for rising interest rates to hit property markets, you may be waiting for a long time, as the demographic changes that have increased demand for residential property are also suppressing interest rates, see Japanese interest rates over the last 2 decades.
John Key and Nationals Legacy = Favour immigrants and foreign money over NZer's...
Screw the people who were raised in NZ who now cannot afford homes and are now forced to rent, with homes in Auckland pushing on $1 million for a 3 bed and next to no "affordable" first homes under $600K (which still need a $120,000 deposit)
Lets open the gateways to record immigrants under the guise of "skilled labour" when we have some of the best universities in the world - training 1,000's of skilled graduates each year in nearly every profession
This government is still in denial and has no plan to ease the issue at all, it's social divide at it's finest and ignorance at it's best... with no end in sight while National is in power.
i think a recent chinese lawyers view was if you are a NZer and cannot afford Auckland prices then move out to the regions... i would argue that NZ born citizens should not be forced out of cities they were born in regardless of how it happens... That is not putting NZer's first... it is simply pricing them out and pushing them out which is arguably the exact opposite
Also, why don't we look more carefully at who we are turning away.
To quote JK himself, I was talking to an economist the other day, PhD qualified from a European nation, who was forced to marry his partner of 6 years in order to remain in New Zealand.
I know I often berate anecdotal evidence, but possibly a good hard look at the skilled workers we are turning away might also prove valuable..
I know a bloke from the USA, emigrated to NZ as skilled migrant, experienced restaurateur, established a successful restaurant producing his home state cuisine, was looking to expand, possibly turn it into a chain. Employed 7 or 8 locals in kitchen and front-of-house. Was mucked around by Immigration for years because he didn't have a culinary school certificate, almost deported several times, couple of short-term reprieves through intervention of MP. Only able to get PR and get on with his life and business after marrying NZ woman. Restaurant still going strong and employing locals. And supposedly we have such a shortage of chefs and restaurant managers that there's constant churn of hundreds a year? Doesn't add up, somehow.
Yeah, true that ngakuni gold. A generation of Kiwis who don't have good jobs because its easier to employ an immigrant than train a teenager.
A generation without their own home ownership ambitions, is a generation of disenfranchised angry dysfunctional people, Crime is going to be our next winning statistic.
While there is no doubt that NZ house prices are relatively expensive, the data is a little bit mistitled IMHO. I read the House Price to Rent ratio as meaning the Yield on houses. Eg annual rental divided by current purchase price. This has generally fallen (meaning lower returns) as interest rates have fallen globally. But the data is actually showing the increase in house prices over time divided by the increase in rents over time. So a country where house prices hadn't changed in 6 years, but rents had fallen, might be top of the table. Perhaps that is what has happened in Turkey, for example.
While there is no doubt that NZ house prices are relatively expensive, the data is a little bit mistitled IMHO. I read the House Price to Rent ratio as meaning the Yield on houses. Eg annual rental divided by current purchase price. This has generally fallen (meaning lower returns) as interest rates have fallen globally. But the data is actually showing the increase in house prices over time divided by the increase in rents over time. So a country where house prices hadn't changed in 6 years, but rents had fallen, might be top of the table. Perhaps that is what has happened in Turkey, for example.
I read this article differently to many people.
One of the affordability issues is our property interest rates are way too high. Way more than the likes of China. This costs us all more than we should be paying. If we paid the same interest as the Poms do in the UK NZ would be much more affordable. Our place in the chart would move down to about the middle.
Secondly the interesting fact about house price to rent levels. So again our landlords are being short changed compared with other countries. Yet the central bankers are targeting property investors and confusing landlords with property traders.
It seems to me far to many people in positions of power are using dodgy charts to formulate policy instead of opening their windows and looking outside.
Nicely said Fritz. I think many do realize though, but we underestimate the utter contempt and arrogance of some of our fellow citizens. It's a worldwide growing problem that comes about when in desperate times people resort to desperate measures and reasons to defend those measures. Then eventually, if allowed to continue....we will see a world war of some kind.
Correct answer is (a
Aucklands discomfort is the regions benefit and nationally the GDP improves.
Living in containers is an option for living in Auckland or alternatively you can own a house in Invers for 150k
and there is a reasonable chance of a job.
Their choice.
Interesting to see Germany realise large price increases. It's often promoted as a place where prices do not increase much.
Can anyone shed any light as to how much Chinese investment is pouring into property in Europe?
Apparently the currency is favourable for that to occur.
Does this at least partly explain the German house price rises? Something must be pushing it up contrary to historic trends.
I dunno, I wouldn't have thought the property market in Germany would be overly conducive to Chinese investment. It's pretty locked down over there in terms of formalities and checks and balances.
Very much a tenant's market and traditionally a good supply of housing in most cities.
Perhaps the refugee influx has changed the forward expectations of property returns. The net might be enough to turn around the declining population.
maybe what's happening in the bond market is the root cause of a rise in global property.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRLw_dZi9Ac
AKL rates 45th in the world cities for most expensive housing per SqM (about $6.7k USD), 1st HKG ($23k), 2nd LON ($21k). 3rd TYO ($19k), Sydney rates 24th ($9.6k)
http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/city_price_rankings?itemId=100
Auckland (and especially New Zealand!) still very cheap by world standards...
Thanks for the link. Those are apartment prices, we don't really do high quality apartments with a few exceptions. Our inner city apartments are pretty crappy so no surprises that they are cheaper than London or Singapore for example. I don't know if you noticed but this is not all about Auckland and nothing to do with apartments or highest price. It is about price to income by country.
In case anyone follows this guy and knows who he is, then this is an interesting piece
His famous book " Rich Dad, Poor Dad" is a good one:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rich-dad-author-robert-kiyosaki-if-you…\
Enjoy/
Kiyosaki is a fraud and a bankrupt. His book is a work of fiction, and there's no evidence he has made money in any other way than books and personal appearances. As one commentator said, "his tips ran the gamut from ridiculous to illegal and downright hurtful and included advocating for insider trading, arguing for the purchase of multiple real estate properties with little or no money down and telling followers they could purchase stocks on margin via unfunded brokerage accounts.”
I read his book and it did change my thoughts BUT I also read a lot from others and in the end developed my own investing processes which works for me.
though I do follow a couple of principles that he quotes,
eg buy assets that produce cashflow and with the cashflow invest in new cashflow positive assets and so on
ironically that is also a WB mantra so I am guessing he borrowed it.
when I learned of his backround (years ago) I reread the book and with different eyes could see where it contradicted itself, which when I found out was co-wrote by his accountant you could see two lots of ideas intertwined
http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2016/02/11/robert_kiyosaki_s_ongoin…
Sell your house now and rent. This is a bubble that will collapse in a heap:
Here is what is happening in Canada:
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/08/29/fear-of-housing-crash-of-canada-housin…
So how many Chinese are purchasing in NZ? who knows what they are doing with their money but if you believe Nick Smith you must also believe that pigs fly:
Chinese invested $US 16 billion in overseas realestate - more than double the amount last year according to CBRE.
From the top Chinese internet site, Juwai New Zealand is the 4th top country searched and inquired about: After the USA, Australia, Canada then NZ. you can check it out here:
https://list.juwai.com/news/2016/04/juwai-reveals-top-10-chinese-buyer-…
So if the 15% foreign investor property tax has crashed the Canadian market then where will this money now flow to?? maybe the 4th country will move to the 3rd - great we get a bronze.
Chances are we are in for a huge increase in prices when this money looks for a bolthole here.
If you are a young New Zealander you will need to consider living in a shipping container.
What is for sure is that John Key government idea of a "Brighter Future" obviously means that you live in a tent as housing is now out of reach for the ordinary citizen.
The inaction by John Key really makes you wonder who he is working for and what his "blind trust" is invested in?
Funny thing is China isn't even the highest foreign investor country in New Zealand. Canada is the biggest foreign investor nation in New Zealand.
59% of foreign direct investment in New Zealand came from North America, Australia and Europe.
Asia makes up only a third of all foreign investment in New Zealand.
that stat comes from OIO approvals which exceed 100 m so does not include residential property or companies, land that falls outside their jurisdiction. also total was only 14.8 billion,
and how much property, land companies was sold to non kiwis and to which countries
we don't know as this government does not want us to know.
again not comparing apples with apples
Why are Sydney and Melbourne house prices still rising after having GCT and stamp duty there ??? does someone care to dig into that ??? or is it just repeating the same script over and over and throwing BS around hoping it might stick ..?
Do you really believe that Vancouver prices have crashed by 66% as this idiot site is claiming ? - I have family in canada, they laugh at me when I mention the subject !!
Some are saying that sales volumes are down by that much - and maybe more, and prices of the ones sold were down by no more than 3 % and the volume is too low to measure properly ...it has only been a month !! let's wait and see what happens when they hit winter season there !!!
Or is it that the chicken littles here want to cling to any piece of news anywhere and slip in political slogans and calls while their brains are still on school holiday leave ??
OK ...., WHY DOESN'T EVERYONE WHO IS WARNING OF A CRASH AND BUBBLE JUST SIT TIGHT UNTIL IT HAPPENS SO THEY CAN BUY THEIR DREAM AUCKLAND $1M HOUSE FOR NEXT TO NOTHING EH ??
because they are MOSTLY the ones who are disadvantaged and have an issue with high prices ...right?
So all the Lefties should drop the Party Script and be thankful to the NATs for making that happen right ? .... LOL .. why do you want to change a gov that is doing exactly what you want .. perfectly ??
just sit back and enjoy the crash and laugh at the Filthy rich property investors while they come down in flames ! ... You shouldn't be concerned about FHBs or anyone else ... the Nats are going to stuff the market up for you because of their mismanagement leading us to a bubble that is sure to burst right?.. so just let them do it !! and you reap the rewards ...we might not need the Unitary Plan after all !! then all the foreigners will leave after suffering heavy losses ...
food for thought ?!! let's try that for a change !!
RBNZ is throwing everything at the problem ... and banks are being cautious too ...
even with 40 % LVR etc they now require loan serviceability at 7.55% .... meaning they have started applying some type of LTI limitation and pricing their risk much higher... so while no one knows what is going to happen in the world , every one involved in the game is battening the hatches ..just in case.
Listen to this again it might help
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=201814133
This headline is factually inaccurate: Auckland is 114th in the world for income to housing ratio @ 9.9 times...there are 113 other global cities which are more expensive than Auckland by income to house price....http://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp let alone new Zealand which will even be a lower multiple
I don't know if you are aware but Auckland is not New Zealand. The link you have given is for cities - crazy places like Shenzen and Mumbai top the list for least affordable with 37 and 38 times income to house price. Is that where we are heading? The Mumbai of the south Pacific! The headline is for COUNTRIES.
New Zealand is rated 82nd least affordable country for income to house price.
http://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_by_country.jsp
No you aren't, you are just trying to find anything that will back your own personal view. And one would assume that the same criteria was applied in all of the countries, so the outcome is valid, unlike the leaving out of most of the foreign buyers in house purchase stats, where we have one group of foreigners included in the numbers and another not, whereas in other countries that we compare ourselves to, include them all.
And given that income growth has not anywhere near kept pace with house price growth, I see your argument being a bit of a tomayto tomarto one, tbh.
No one should talk anything negative about foreign buyers or our respectful PM would not like.
Everyone talking negative are jealous and who cares about the future young generation and FHB as this country in times to come will be filled with.......................
Is interest.co.nz going to retract this 2nd paragraph when research shows that NZ is the 82nd least affordable country vs. income to house price ratios'....I am at a total loss that this statement by media is still allowed to be printed without a retraction or explanation? Greg, are you going to respond?
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.