Olly Newland is warning residential property investors not to be too reliant on capital gains.
In a Double Shot video interview with interest.co.nz, the veteran property investor and author, who is also a director of property advisory and management company Newland Burling, said the current residential property market had the same smell about it as previous booms, before they turned into busts.
"The warning bells are well and truly ringing but no one is listening," he said.
He also said that the current Residential Tenancies Act was outdated and needed to be revised to better suit the needs of people who were long term or even lifetime renters.
Newland said although residential property prices were continuing to increase, particularly in Auckland, the days of rising prices would eventually come to an end and that would be a day of reckoning for many investors.
"At the moment they are all giggly. They all go around giggling about the money they are making," he said.
But when prices stopped going up investors would be left with the chores of having to collect rents, maintain their properties and deal with changes in tenants, without the benefit of capital gains, and many would decide to lock in the capital gains that had already been made and cash up.
That could see thousands of properties coming on to the market at the same time, with a shrinking pool of buyers.
Newland said the sale statistics he had, showed that investors were buying 80% of the properties sold in South Auckland and 41% of sales across the whole of Auckland.
"First home buyers haven't got a look in because investors are buying everything that's coming up.
"It's not healthy," he said.
And many of the investors that came to Newland Burling for advice had paid so much for their properties that they were having to keep shovelling money into them to keep them afloat, because the rental income wasn't sufficient to cover the outgoing like rates, insurance and maintenance.
"That's all very nice when capital gains keep making you feel better but when capital gain stops it will become a real pain," he said.
Newland also believes the Residential Tenancies Act needs to be overhauled to better suit the needs of long term renters.
"Because so many people are renting now and renting for life, the Residential Tenancies Act is out of date," he said.
He believed that existing tenancy agreements were suitable for people renting short term, say a year or two, but that long term agreements should be more like leases on commercial premises.
These could be for terms of 50 years or even more, effectively giving people surety of tenure for life.
Under such an arrangement the tenants would be responsible for paying outgoings such as rates, insurance and maintenance, but that would also be reflected in the amount of rent they would pay..
And there would be a specified mechanism for reviewing rents, as there are in commercial leases.
Newland said introducing such arrangements would attract institutional investors into the residential property market and could help boost the supply of affordable housing.
In other countries it was common for both public and private institutions to buy large residential complexes and give people tenancies for life, he said.
You can watch the full video interview with Olly Newland by clicking on the play icon in the video image at the top of this story.
You can receive all of our property articles automatically by subscribing to our free email Property Newsletter. This will deliver all of our property-related articles, including auction results and interest rate updates, directly to your in-box 3-5 times a week. We don't share your details with third parties and you can unsubscribe at any time. To subscribe just click on this link, scroll down to "Property email newsletter"and enter your email address.
149 Comments
A wise man once told me never try to buy at the bottom and never try to sell at the top
1. Because you only know the highs and lows AFTER they happen
2. You don't have to make the greatest return, only a return.
The problem with mum and dad investors (and in this case includes overseas), is they usually are the last to invest because they like to see the great returns before investing. Great return have never lasted and the markets always correct. (Take a look at petrol / gold / currency / milk / etc - which is why we say never put all your eggs in one basket)
There has been enough warnings about the peaks, the bust cycles, so those who continue to choose residential real estate as their only investment, deserve what will eventually happen.
This may be the best time to sell to overseas investors, get a high price now, and buy back cheaper in a few years time.
True but then we will be way above the rest of the world. Something has to stabilise. I know people refusing to buy now even though they have the money as it just feels too precarious. I don't think the top end is doing great at the moment. There is a cut off point and I suspect it's only a little higher than it is now. Or were you being sarcastic - haha :)
People don't believe it will happen as it hasn't really happened here before. But have housing increases ever been as fevered as now? I remember after the GFC in Europe the people you felt sorry for were property developers or investors. And they didn't it coming either.
Actually, it did happen here, 2009? Prices went down about 11%??? Sure, not as bad as 25-30% seen in many places, but still a relatively significant drop. I think we'll see something like that again in next 2 years. I doubt a major crash, but there will be a correction
It sounds really cool and philanthropic that institutions would buy a large holding and rent units out long term, until you realise that Mr 1% big bucks "institutional investor" had just monopolised it all and will just fat cat it forevahhhhh because....., anyone?, well because they can, that's all.
If you intend to live there forever you should buy it. The only way that ever worked was for state house tenants the likes of which still live in bazillion dollar properties at prehistoric rents which never went up.
It certainly does not fit with the investors "cashing up" any old time they choose, try creating a lease which will transcend a mortgagee sale.
Normal gold rush bubble rules will apply, the smart ones are already out or have positive yield, late adopters will be turning over the old diggings in the vain hope of salvage, but fewer will want to buy at their break even price all the time until they all get it at once.
But the NZ sourced income drives the rental income that properties can earn, thus drives the yield on the investment properties, and so will have an big input into the price of the property (excluding the portion of expected future capital gain increases - obviously these will continue at the current rate in perpetuity).
Our property prices started increases long before the Chinese entered the market.
This has benefited one generation who where already on the property ladder when buying a house was around 3 - 4 times an income.
This generation bought investment houses for retirement, holiday houses for less than a years income.
This generation would still be the largest investor age group in NZ for residential houses and have been the largest group to benefit from overseas investors.
If we change the rules to deter or stop overseas investment then this will benefit new house buyers, but affect those who have invested in houses for retirement, and also those new home owners who have purchased in the last 5 years
You think? Every video I see from the Herald has FTB's terrified of "missing out". FTBs still look fairly healthy to me. Your scenario of investors selling to each other is a long, long way away.
I think you'll find most people buy and hold anyway.
ObeseBallerina... Every Bubble that burst has been due to the fear of missing out. Something to keep in mind as you make such comments. You already got the first part right that many people fear that they are missing out.... Now simply wait for part two of the equation.
He is right about investors and speculators buying up large. Overseas buyers are less active than they were. The word "greed" comes to mind. Stuff Y and Z. They can eat biscuits while the boomers and X will eat cake and with plenty of cream on top. Who will have the last laugh?
It's like breathing fresh air for the first time. Or seeing the sunrise over the ocean. Finally. I've said it before and I'll say it again, it may be too late but at the very LEAST, we renters (good, clean, working tenants) need a revision of rights.
I know some tenants who have been shunted around 11 or more times in the space of 3 years because 'the family is moving back in'.
I may never own a home, but in the current climate a little bit of long term security wouldn't go unappreciated.
Sigh, I think I have. It's hard to know. I'm also under no illusion that if this goes tits up I'll be safe. My little business I love so much will also fail too. It might be unavoidable but mentally, I think I'm prepared. I'm not so sure about my associates who all bought property and screamed at me to do the same as them.
I couldn't and can't. Maybe it'll be the lesser of two evils, I dunno.
He was not right, prices have not crashed in Auckland in 2008/2009, rather , they dipped 14% which is nothing after years of mostly decent increases since 1992. If you think a 14% fall is a crash, then, if house prices fell 14% right now the price would be back to dec 2015 levels....hardly a crash.
Remember for many it is 'unrealised gain' as someone around here is so fond of reminding us. So if you 'lost' 14% but had gained 30% or so in previous years it wouldn't be gutting. Many people wouldn't even blink as they intend to hang to their properties for ages. Same for someone who bought a property as a long term residence.
a lot also lost there jobs in 2008 2009 so did not have the ability to top up their investment properties to keep the banks at bay, back then they suddenly stopped being your friendly banker, and forced a lot into bankruptcy.
I guess those of us that have been through the downturns remember those that didn't make it as they live by the mantra that NZ house prices never drop
housing stock in NZ went from 616 billion down to 568 billion in 2008,
48 billion of housing price in NZ disappeared in 2008
and it took until the end of 2011 to get back.
three years it was not a short correction
and a lot of people that brought at the top, leveraged, lost their job or their partner did got wiped out
but that's ok that was the GFC cant happen again
Surfisup.... we are in a very different point in the economic cycle.
In 2008, the OCR was close to 7% so when the house prices started crashing, the RBNZ dropped it to 2.5% and therefore it was just a minor dip.
No with OCR already at 2%, when properties start dropping there are no more levers to pull to stem the drop. I'm afraid it will be a free-fall this time. In fact, I think it is already too late.
I have had the same perfect tenants for 10 years in one of my properties. They have had one rent increase of $20/week after nine years and I have never completed a house inspection. In my mind it is their house and will be for life. It covers itself, cheaper than market rent but zero hassle.
This is why John Key is explicitly refusing to get involved with the demand side. They see us at major risk of correction and want to say they had nothing to do with it. So we are now the most expensive city in the world relative to income. Nowhere ever holds that title for long as change is always afoot. No wonder everyone is so tense and nervous at the moment.
Well, I think a decent boost in supply will come in Auckland in the next 2-3 years, that's going to correct things a bit. Land taxes etc might scare a few people away too
I'd like to see figures on domestic migration too - I know plenty of people who have recently moved away from Auckland, are about to, or want to....Also household sizes - more young people / immigrants living in multi-generational households, so population may be increasing but not necessarily household formation.
I reckon smart money is on Tauranga - the place is booming, still 'relatively' affordable, getting a lot of NZ migrants, and is unlikely to be hit by any drop away in foreign investment
Am no economist but in South Auckland 80% entry level homes were bought by investors recently, selling to each other. So first time buyers are locked out and this includes immigrants. It sounds more like a share market rather than a real need for accommodation. So it just takes something to happen that spooks people and then the house of cards will come tumbling down. There is a demand for homes though so prices won't sink below a certain level but will correct to be more in line with NZ salaries. I believe that overtaking Sydney was a significant milestone and many people are anxious and ready to bale at the slightest signal. Very interesting times.
Yes and probably most of those investors were kiwis.
The best way to disincentivise that is to increase supply - delivered by both market and govt. Then the capital gains will reduce = less incentive to invest.
Please don't someone say 'Capital Gains Tax' - that has merit in terms of taxation equity, I would agree, but it does bugger all to stop runaway housing markets. In fact it can be counterproductive.
@ morgagebelt: Having been through a property crash before in the UK, here are the signs to look out for. House prices rise to ridiculous unsustainable levels.
Banks start to lower mortgage interest rate to enable property purchases.
People start to spend less on house hold items and electrical goods as they have to save or have more out going costs for new mortgages or rent.
Retail chains start to go bust due to lack of spending, particularly for household items.
Quality migrants start to leave due to lack of house purchase opportunity. This affects the economy as their departure effects business performance.
As the economy weakens and is no longer able to support over inflated house prices, they begin to tumble and crash. As simple as that really.
There will be a property crash, just depends by how much a drop and whether it drags us in to a recession or not.
It may take a year or two depending on how quickly the rates drop and people's spending power, plus whether we're able to retain and further attract skilled and well educated migrants.
Basically we need to attract people who can bring in real business (And therefore real money) for NZ economy and stop relying on housing to keep GDP growing, as it's essentially a false economy made up of unsustainable boom leading to bust cycles.
So immigration wise we need to stop allowing people to just purchase their citizenship at the $1.5million price tag as that just inflates the housing bubble and also allows them to get all their cash back if they choose to sell their property (Before the crash of course), so essentially free citizenship.
Immigration also needs to tighten it's requirements to give preference to skilled migrants, there looks to be too many loop holes to just let anyone in at the moment. Student visa's etc...
Kiwi migrants should be given a period of at least 5 years property tax exemption to work abroad if they needs to. This is important as they can bring new skills and business trade back to NZ when they return home, just a fact of modern life in a global economy.
Yes demand is predicted to wane over this year. Look at the RBNZ forecasts from their MArch monetary statement. Net migration can only be at such high levels in a "rock star" economy, which we clearly are not in anymore.
A drop in net migration and at the same time, the first lots of quick-build houses will be released on to the market. you do the math.
Justice, and others...
This is a good article, link below. It argues strict planning rules and 'easy money' are the main causes of the UK's property price explosion. Same here. Justice, interesting given our discussion a little while ago about how the exclusion of house price inflation from the CPI is a farce, and allows the OCR to be kept low (to keep fuelling the bubble) because inflation is...wait for it... 'low'
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/12/house-prices-money…
Australian banks stopping lending to foreign buyers
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/79367707/westpac-stops-lending-to…
I absolutely agree with this article fritz. I personally don't think housing will correct until we face up to 2008. A kicking the can down the road approach, can't work. Many countries are bankrupt and extending debt limits has become the solution. To me it's not that Auckland property is a ponzi, it's more that whole world economy is a ponzi. If world interest rates were normalised can anybody say for sure if their job or business is safe. It's hard to know.
Something isn't right - I mentioned last week that there are very, very few real estate agent signs outside houses on the North Shore. Someone poo-pooed this. Well, I drove from Northcross to Tristram Ave down East Coast Road this morning and I saw two Agent signs. Two. In 8Kms of cheek-by-jowl prime residential real estate. If the market is white hot and the vendors are not bothering with local marketing...then I think this is evidence that buyers are no longer local people.
Many are being flown to others regions like here in Nelson Austin. Have friends who have now paid $50 thou more than they wanted for a place they really didn't just to get out of renting. Hope their jobs are secure and they can handle very little disposable income for years to come
It's 'mainly' supply.
Auckland's crisis has it's origins in the Auckland Regional Policy Statement in 1999 putting a 'fence' around Auckland, and then the various legacy city/district councils doing almost no plan changes to allow more density!
Doh! In the face of strong population growth, only one thing could happen...
Not rocket science AT ALL.
The politicians (local body and central govt) of the 2000-2010 period should hang their heads in shame...
Except most of them are laughing all the way to the bank (with their multiple investment properties)
VERY important observation, Austin Fisher.
Despite JK and BEs' continuous "relaxed" " nothing to see here" SPIN, at all costs JK intends to keep the paths open for the international money launderers. What other innovations do they have to keep "the economy" looking schtrong? Maybe some more "Hyper - bowls" from Paula Bennett. ( Q&A interview, Sunday, with Jack Tame)
His next "trick" is making NZ 'visa friendly' for the "hot" money property purchasers.
As an added bonus and an optional extra, these property purchasers can take an internationally - owned "tourist" bus trip and stay at their internationally owned "tourist" hotels!
By the way, did John Key actually implement his idea ( of a year or two ago) to organise a waive of Visas for the "plane loads of high rollers," to put their stolen loot through the 'washing machines' at Sky City Casino?
It's clear that a patriotic, concerned section of Jo Public, are starting to 'catch on' to the fact that NZ is being governed (oxymoron) for the international 1%.
This is causing Key & Co to lift the waffle, fudge and spin into "overtime," but still has no effect in dampening down the zeal and psychopathic attitudes peculiar to the Nouveau Rich.
The MSM are trying hard to be seen to "bat" for Jo Public, by publishing (newspapers) and discussing (radio) the damning truth of the "Sale of New Zealand." This journalistic zeal lasts one day, not to be mentioned again, unless prompted by another revelation they have not been able to shut down!
As a variation on what Einstein said :
We can't fix the mess using the same people, waffling the same Propaganda, appealing to the many wilfully blind voters whose only concern is for their own short term comfort.
Luckily, many of the commentators on this site do have a clear view of our obligations to all citizens of both this planet and New Zealand.
Austin fisher: Something isn't right
Right
It was mentioned here a couple of years ago that a Foreign National can buy NZ residential property from a local and once purchased it can be flicked again and again overseas in an Asian jurisdiction without ever being advertised locally here in NZ - See Juwai.com
It can change hands many times without going through local NZ real estate agent hands and never be reported - except so long as they register the transfer of ownership it will be picked up by LINZ
Do we really foresee a major crash with thousands of properties coming to market in the short term? Perhaps a slow down or flat period, but a major crash? Until migration is regulated a little and the building of new dwellings and more consents come on stream to meet the demand I don't see a major bust any time soon. Even with a few thousand houses to market in Auckland we are still way behind the numbers needed to meet the growing demand, net Migration is at yet another high this month and it has been month on month for some time now. We can't keep up with the quota let alone the current backlog.
Investors who buy purely for capital gains and have to shell out their own money to keep their investments a float could be in trouble at some point, but is that really investing or is that speculating? Buying for positive yield and fixing some low rates for longer periods may help those wiser folks for the long term.
Yes. yes we do. Concentration of wealth based on the perception of decades more capital gain, massive gap between incomes vs debt ratios, pressure to continuously lower the ocr and interest rates with no growth in productivity. Fundamental after fundamental so out of whack that a correction will be needed sooner than later. Every day not brought under control means a worse and longer crisis later
I agree, i don't think there will be a major crash given the market fundamentals. But sentiment plays a big part in any boom and bust. When enough people get scared and the sentiment shifts to the downside the price drops will begin and will snowball for a period of time. So yea, the herd could run for the exits, but having learned from the past experience, the downward spiral doesn't last as long as the upward bull run and so the prices will still rebound upwards with a vengeance some years from from now, eventually dwarfing today's prices. $2,000,000 for an average house in Auckland city 15 years from now is not unrealistic. As long as our cities keep growing, the overall trend in house prices will point upwards.
The one fundamental which is a major driver is supply and demand.
Housing is not something that can simply be substituted for something else tomorrow. Yes I agree with you, there are a lot of indicators but until supply outstrips demand I doubt a massive bust is just around the corner. Although there are warning signs. If we keep saying it will happen long enough then eventually it will happen, in the next year or 2 I can't see it, outside of that who knows...
Christchurch would be considered too high risk by most property Investors, all those after shocks.
I remember when we were trying to buy our home here in Auckland after the main quake, every open home had Christchurch property investors checking out new investments as we're less risky an area.
Though saying that we do have 50 volcanoes. ;)
Christchurch has a large number of properties for sale (TradeMe currently lists 2199 properties for sale and 1812 for rent) and several large developments (one is supposedly for 1300 to 1500 homes). Agree about the risks in Christchurch - not only from earthquakes but also poor repairs. All the time there seems to be backsliding as to which of the anchor projects will be actually build - we live in interesting times.
..that's flawed logic. If the money supply contracts, as it will as the dairy cash runs out and economy deteriorates, there will be a reset. That is, we will all have less cash, so prices will fall accordingly. Demand need not fall for real estate to fall, it's the ability to pay that causes the drop.
It may not be tolerated - doesn't mean it won't happen - the government and the RB are actually quite impotent. NZ doesn't have the financial depth to prevent such a crash. NZ is only point something of a percent of the world GDP and a pimple on the underside of the earth - far from many of it's markets.
In the US the fed want to hike rates, but are too scared of a major collapse. Look what happened to their stockmarket in January. I believe that we should avoid any more cuts at all costs. More cuts will put us in a position like the US where they can't raise rates. I personally think they should raise rates here, that would instantly cool things down without causing panic. It's the expectation of us heading to zero that's contributing to heating things up. The excuse that a raise here would hurt dairy i don't buy, as the worst ones are being sold up anyway.
Could this be the end of low interest rates? Trump becomes US President, 50% chance at the moment. Even more if he gets the FBI to indict Hitlery and some disenfranchised Bernie supporters join Trump's camp.
What does Trump do, how does he make America great again? He makes the US Corporations pay tax, he increases protectionism, both of these leading to higher prices. In retaliation China and the Saudis and others sell their US Bonds, lowering the US dollar. Prices for the greatest consuming nation in the world go up, inflation goes up and when that happens as we all know interest rates go up. NZ property investors (brainwashed by too much media and property investor ads) will have to sell, house prices go down, especially in Otara. People who live in Otara could then buy a house.
I'm pretty sure bookies are not biased - they are trying to make money based on correctly predicting the outcome of the election. I assume they are completely dispassionate when they set their odds. Not that that necessarily means they are going to be all that accurate...
Hard to say it but I would vote Trump. The guy is a complete moron and will bring the system tumbling down around the 1percenters which needs to be done there and also here in NZ.
Hitlery is a conniving cow who lost all shred of respect when she hung around after Slick Willy was found to have tackled anything in reach.
Steven, she may not be a nut job but she is a proven lying criminal war hawk who's right in there with Wall St and the worlds most corrupt banks. And she sure as hell won't be getting any advocates from Bernie supporters. They have made it quite clear, it's Bernie or revolution with Trump.
Yes good point - I don't trust the book makers or the pollsters either after losing a fair bit of money transferring GBPs back here before the last UK election which was meant to be close... I was just wondering how you came up with your odds for a Trump win.
I don't know much about the policies of any of the candidates, but the fact that Trump and Sanders are outsiders makes me inclined to cheer for them.
Wise words from Olly Newland. People should appreciate that there was significant down turn in property prices 7 years ago. If it wasn't for the Christchurch earthquake in 2010 increasing demand, the Auckland property price drop would would have been a lot worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7FffaOqqYA
Hold on though Machaviavelli, the way they are running the world there will never be another bust, that's the theory. ...keep rates at zero, keep printing , kicking the can, increasing debt limits, debt is the new money, phoney jobs, zombie companies it's all sustainable.
Fair call tim12. What makes me squirm is when I hear people say (and believe) "this time is different". Markets go up and down. There's no two ways about it. The timing of the ups and downs is what is seemingly impossible to predict.
These are strange times though..
even MSM now see the hub of the problem, foxes in charge of the hen house
Paul Glass: No real political will to tackle the housing crisis
What other reason can you have for investing in a negatively geared property than reaping capital gains? Why is it that mortgage interest is tax deductible for speculators but not for owners, and that rent is not tax deductible. Clearly this taxation framework skews the market in favour of investors.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/home-truths/news/article.cfm?c_id=1500914&obj…
One main factor that Olly is not up with the play on is the Chinese, There will be so many Chinese migrating to NZ over the next three years that house prices can only continue to increase. Auckland Council will not vote in the Unitary Plan in September and the government will do nothing about it one year out from a General Election. We do not have enough tradies to build the required number of homes to keep up with the population increase and the SHA scheme is proving to be a failure. With term deposit interest rates at 1.5% after tax the only game in town is real estate. Olly is now running seminars in commercial real estate so he has a vested interest in preaching negativity about residential.
Do you guys who keep talking about Sydney understand the market over there? Forecasts are for massive oversupply of apartments in Sydney and Melbourne due to projects due to be delivered over the next few years. This is far from being the case in Auckland. It's amazing prices there are as high as they are considering the projected supply.
Investors are buying 80% of stock because they know there is demand from tenants and I guess they assume prices will keep rising.
I see a combination of factors keeping a lid on house price appreciation going forwards. Prices have gone up considerably and realistically gains are going to be pretty single digit at best in most parts of Auckland. Reason high house prices will have an effect on the economy as highly leveraged owners will have less to spend on the real economy. Everyone not spending will eventually lead to higher unemployment. Currently momentum is people feel richer as there house has gone up so spending more but the complete reverse will happen once prices soften. Secondly more houses will be built over the next few years and migration will slow down also. Investors will load more properties on the market to get out increasing supply. House prices will eventually go back to 2013 levels (start of the bubble). At this point more people from NZ will look to go to Australia again in search of jobs increasing supply of housing.
Who says any of those things are going to happen? You have written that like you are looking into a crystal ball. Rates will drop, a tax (spit) of some form will be introduced to slow the market, immigration will continue unabated and you will never see a 50% drop in house prices. Remember, a 20% takes you back to Dec 2015.
If the situation continues, and financially there is no correction, then social upheaval becomes peoplesonly option. The Otara situation is case in point, a lot of families living down that way were originally in Ponsonby/grey lynn. Lock them out of ownership again, push them further out ? Is that the plan ? More emphasis on the social fabric should drive policy, not stuffing your own pockets full of loot.
So the workers become disenfranchised fringe dwellers, while the rich enjoy the spoils, sounds very Russian, will Queenstown become our Siberia ? Queenstown Gulag has a nice ring to it.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/28/news/economy/us-economic-confidence-low…"
/index.html?iid=hp-toplead-dom....... Beware the bulls.
The U.S. stock market has rebounded and is within striking distance of new records. Hiring remains strong and home prices are rising.
Yet Americans don't see brighter days ahead: 60% say the economy is "getting worse," according to Gallup.
"My biggest concern is that we continue to bleed momentum,"
Olly last called for caution in 2004. Only 3 or so years later he was right!
His statement that he can say exactly when "The day of reckoning is coming" it's when "capital gains stop accumulating" but he doesn't know when that is.
Wow. So when prices aren't going up any more, that's the top of the market. Fantastic.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.