Labour accuses Stats NZ of spinning building consent numbers during election campaign; But doesn't understand how to read the figures itself

By Alex Tarrant

Government Statistician Geoff Bascand has come out strongly against suggestions from Labour Party MP Phil Twyford that Statistics New Zealand has been spinning its press releases to show favourable messages during the election campaign.

Twyford, who is Labour's Building and Construction spokesman, made the accusation in a press release on Tuesday, pointing to the large seasonally adjusted slump in building consents in September, while Statistics New Zealand's commentary of the figures led with the trend for consents continuing to rise.

This followed an article in the NBR earlier on Tuesday, which said it had written to Stats NZ questioning its commentary in the September building consent release, which led with the fact the underlying trend continued to rise, even though the headline seasonally adjusted monthly figures showed a large drop of 17%.

"NBR challenged Statistics NZ about its emphasis on a positive long-term trend and asked when a monthly rise or fall could affect the trend," NBR says in its article.

Stats NZ replied to the NBR by saying it had decided to emphasise the trend in the September release "as it shows the long-term picture for building consents, whereas if we had just emphasised the decrease in the seasonally adjusted and actual figures, some users may think the figures look worse than the actuality – when really the long-term picture shown by the trend is more of a positive picture”.

Twyford makes it political

Twyford then sent out a press release, saying if any government department needed to be "squeaky clean" in terms of political neutrality, it was Stats NZ. NBR had not questioned the political neutrality of Stats NZ in its article.

“It is even more crucial that this is the case during an election campaign. Voters have a right to be able to rely on the accuracy of the numbers Stats produces. They certainly do not expect these numbers to be massaged in a way that tells a more favourable story for the Government of the day," Twyford said.

That was "certainly" what appeared to have happened, however, with the release of the building consent figures for September, Twyford said.

“There was a large slump in consents in September this year compared to September last year ---- seasonally adjusted figures fell 17 per cent, including apartments, and fell 14 per cent when apartments are excluded --- but the headline on the Statistics NZ press release read: Trends for new home approvals continue to rise," he said.

“Talk about spin! Stats NZ’s enthusiasm could perhaps be excused in less partisan times, but during an election period when National is patting itself on the back for doing as good a job as anyone could in terms of keeping the economy ticking over, it is impossible not to see a lack of neutrality in the department’s media release.

“Stats NZ says it didn’t want to make the figures look worse than what they actually are. Well, there are other ways of doing that instead of trying to make a 17 per cent decline look like an increase,” Twyford said.

“That’s the sort of behaviour you expect from a John Key or Steven Joyce. It’s not what you expect of an organisation that has always --- until now --- prided itself on being fiercely independent of political bias. It is inexcusable for Statistics New Zealand to give even the appearance of bias during an election campaign,” he said.

Wrong numbers

However, in rushing to get his press release out, Twyford made the mistake of mixing up annual changes (which are shown by unadjusted numbers, and showed a fall of 1.3% in consents from September 2010 to September 2011) and the monthly seasonally adjusted figures, which did show a 17% drop in September from August. A spokesman for Labour said the accusation still stood, as the large monthly drop in September took place -it just wasn't an annual drop like Twyford had said. 

"The large decrease in seasonally adjusted figures for new home approvals in September partly reflects the strength of the increases in the previous two months," Stats NZ industry and labour statistics manager Louise Holmes-Oliver said in the release criticised by Twyford, which was released on October 31 - over a week ago.

"While monthly figures have decreased, the trend for new home approvals continues to rise," she said in the release.

The trend for approvals, which is based on the seasonally adjusted figures, rose 0.8% in September from August, down from 1.2% growth in August from July.

What Stats NZ said:

The trends for the number of new homes authorised, both including and excluding apartments, continue to rise after dropping to some of the lowest levels seen since these series began, Statistics New Zealand said today. This is despite seasonally adjusted figures for September showing a large decrease, whether apartment numbers, which tend to be volatile, are included or excluded.

"The large decrease in seasonally adjusted figures for new home approvals in September partly reflects the strength of the increases in the previous two months," industry and labour statistics manager Louise Holmes-Oliver said. "While monthly figures have decreased, the trend for new home approvals continues to rise".

In September 2011, seasonally adjusted figures fell 17 percent, including apartments, and fell 14 percent when apartments are excluded.

In September 2011, compared with September 2010, consents were issued for:

1,246 new homes, including apartments, down 1.3 percent

1,124 new homes, excluding apartments, down 6.5 percent

122 new apartments, including 79 assisted-living units.

In Canterbury, earthquake-related building consents totalled $29 million in September 2011. This comprised $26 million non-residential consents and $3 million in residential consents, including consents for four new dwellings.

Residential consent values totalled $398 million in September 2011, down 12 percent compared with the same month last year, while non-residential consents totalled $320 million, down 13 percent. Consent values for all buildings totalled $717 million, down 12 percent. 

Data for building consents is obtained from all territorial authorities. For more information on building consent statistics, see Building Consents Issued: September 2011.

Bascand comes out firing

Government Statistician Geoff Bascand released a press statement later on Tuesday, saying: "As Government Statistician, I am fiercely protective of my statutory independence in the production and release of statistics."

"Statistics New Zealand takes its responsibility seriously to explain and present statistics in a meaningful and accurate way. Phil Twyford MP has questioned our choice to highlight the trend series of statistics in our 31 October release of Building Consents Issued: September 2011," Bascand said.

"In this case, volatility over the past months meant that in our judgement, the trend series provided the most useful indicator of movements in building activity. We also reported the seasonally adjusted series within the first paragraph of our media statement and our more detailed information release included the actual monthly number of building consents," he said.

"Statistics New Zealand has an obligation to release objective statistics. We will continue to do this at all times."

My view

How desperate can Labour get?

In defense of Stats NZ, I have been many times accused by interest.co readers of ‘spinning the figures’ for the benefit of my articles. You have one headline, one opening sentence, and what you choose to angle on obviously can’t cover everything and please everyone.

In this case due to the large fluctuations over the past several months, Stats NZ decided to focus on the trend in consents. That’s fine. They’re probably like me and imagine those looking at their release won’t just read the headline like Phil Twyford has done.

And if he (or Labour’s media team – whoever actually wrote the release) had cared to read the full release, they’d have got their statement correct – immediately underneath the sentence saying there was a 17% drop in seasonally adjusted figures, it says there was a 1.3% drop in annual figures. Going further and actually reading the spreadsheet which shows the figures, they would have seen that the seasonally adjusted figures show change from the previous month.

The fact NBR decided to ask Stats NZ about its commentary is fine - that's its job. They wanted to know in what instance a large drop in the monthly seasonally adjusted figure would affect the trend (the trend fell from 1.2% to 0.8%).

Then Twyford decided to jump in and turn this into a political stunt (you each have one guess as to why) by questioning Stats NZ's political neutrality.

The fact that Twyford is making this accusation eight days after the figures were released just shows how desperate Labour is to try and get themselves in the media. Twyford is the party’s Building and Construction spokesman - he should have been looking at the figures the day they were released, and if he did, why weren't alarm bells ringing then?

If it takes him over a week, and a media article, for him to notice this commentary from Stats NZ, then what's he going to be like as Minister for Building and Construction?

And finally, Twyford isn't even Labour's spokesman for Statistics. That's Raymond Huo. If Labour's concerned about the Statistics department, then shouldn't their spokesman for statistics be issuing the release?