By Chris Trotter*
Let's get one thing straight: Shane Jones ain’t gonna win Northland. The guy is simply not the sort of retail politician who can barnstorm his way into a normally safe major-party seat and carry it away with him. In other words, Jones isn’t Winston Peters. What’s more, the trimmed-down, pumped-up Peters who appeared on the weekend political talk shows knows it. As always, NZ First’s salvation will come down to the skills of the man who founded it 27 drama-filled years ago. To borrow one of Peters’ favourite expressions: “It’s Showtime!”
Peters’ weekend performances – especially his bout with Q+A host, Jack Tame – offered startling proof of the NZ First leader’s determination to either triumph gloriously, or go down with all his guns blazing. It’s many years since I’ve watched a better performance by Peters. A politician of his calibre, filled with this sort of determination, cannot be dismissed as a lost cause. Indeed, with so little to lose and so much to gain, Peters and his team can afford to throw caution to the wind. Moreover, when Arron Banks and Andy Wigmore, “the bad boys of Brexit”, have agreed to lend you their wind machine, caution’s flight could be a long one!
Above all else, Banks and Wigmore (like Boris Johnson and his folically-challenged Svengali, Dominic Cummings) are political disrupters. The sort of people who will upset the apple cart just to see which way the apples go a-rolling. Had they been born 200 years ago, they would have been the sort of reckless cavalry commanders whose do-or-die charges either won battles – or lost them. This makes them the Jeb Stuart and George Armstrong Custer of the digital political battlefield.
How, then, should we anticipate these “bad boys” disrupting the 2020 General Election?
The first observation to make in this regard is that the primary strategic maxim of New Zealand’s very own “bad boy”, and that of his British advisers, will be “keep it simple and say it often”. If the campaigns run on behalf of Nigel Farage and his insurgent Brexiteers in 2016 and 2019 are any guide, subtlety will play no part in NZ First’s bid to scramble over the 5% MMP threshold. Given that its campaign will be played out on social – as opposed to the mainstream – media, NZ First’s lack of subtlety is unlikely to present a problem. Quite the reverse in fact.
The sudden ascension of Judith Collins to the leadership of a cut and bleeding National Party has, paradoxically, made Peters’ job easier. In saying so, however, I am stepping well away from the prevailing view of the political commentariat. The latter has been near unanimous in characterising Collins’ success as sounding the grim tocsin of Peters’ demise. “There’s barely enough room for two populists on the New Zealand stage,” runs the conventional wisdom, “and nowhere near enough for three.” When the music stops, these pundits opine, Winston will likely be left without a chair.
Ah, yes, but there are populists, and then there are POPULISTS. The key to any populist campaigner’s success lies in determining the majority’s direction of travel and finding the fastest way to the head of the column. Or, as Alexandre Auguste Ledru-Rollin memorably quipped in 1848, as the revolutionary crowds surged through the streets of Paris: “I must follow them, for I am their leader!” The only question Peters will be asking over the next nine weeks is: “What do New Zealanders want.”
If his famously sensitive political nose is still in full working order, his answer to that crucial question will be: “They want to be kept safe.” In personal terms that translates to: “I want to keep my job, or find a new one, in a fully-functioning, Covid-free New Zealand economy.”
Peters task, therefore, is to present himself as the only person who can make this happen. To the left of NZ First floats the “pixie dust” of the Greens and the unfulfilled promises of Labour’s inept dreamers. On its right stand the neoliberal shock-troops of the Act Party, and the blood-spattered remnants of the once-mighty National Party. The ever-kind and empathic but frustratingly ineffectual young mother-of-the-nation, Jacinda Ardern, faces-off against the whatever-it-takes warrior queen of dirty politics, Judith Collins.
Be in no doubt, from here on out Peters and NZ First (amply supplied with ammunition by Messers Banks and Wigmore) intend to turn the whole political environment into an free-fire zone. The Cabinet Manual? That’s just a guide. Should the Prime Minister object to being fired on by the Deputy Prime Minister, she will be reproved (gently) for failing to grasp the essence of the Westminster System’s adversarial genius. If the Greens object, they will be told to STFU. Any nay-saying from Collins will be met with the Mandy Rice-Davies defence: “Well, [s]he would say that, wouldn’t [s]he?”
Peters’ super-simple “common-sense” solution? To position himself and NZ First between these two equally problematic choices. What New Zealand needs is a wise and experienced statesman with the parliamentary wherewithal to guarantee that a government led by either woman behaves responsibly. As Peters explained to NZ First conference delegates on Sunday afternoon: “We’ve been an accelerator for great ideas and a handbrake for bad ones.”
The message could hardly be simpler: The New Zealand electorate will remove that handbrake at its own extreme peril. Who dares risk a Labour Government dependent on the Greens? Or a National Government dependent on Act? Those voters who hang around the far ends of the political spectrum will dismiss Peters’ pitch as the purest humbug. But Peters isn’t after their votes; he’s addressing those harbouring reservations about the likely conduct of both major parties. It is for their benefit that Peters is making the handbrake pitch.
“We’ve used common-sense to hold Labour and the Greens to account. We’ve opposed woke pixie dust. We’ve defended socially conservative values, like the right to believe in God. We’ve focused on the wisdom of sound economics.”
Imagine each of those “achievements” transformed into a “meme”, or a snappy video, and targeted at carefully selected segments of the New Zealand demographic pie. Simple to the point of being crude. Boastful to the point of being vainglorious. Accurate, only to a point. Imagine vintage populist speeches delivered from the back of a big silver bus. Imagine inflammatory billboards promising to stem the flood of immigrants. Imagine inspirational billboards promising the return of the Family Benefit. Do not, however, expect costings worked out to the last decimal point, or the slightest mercy shown to any journalist foolhardy enough to demand them.
This will be a campaign of bad boys, by bad boys, for bad boys. So, hold onto your hat New Zealand: “It’s showtime!”
*Chris Trotter has been writing and commenting professionally about New Zealand politics for more than 30 years. He writes a weekly column for interest.co.nz. His work may also be found at http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com.
94 Comments
NZ is a very small and different playing field for the two British Bovver Boys, so to speak. Tactics over there in the UK designed to resonate and be absorbed amongst the diversity of millions can quickly become stark and untimely here, especially with a media who excel in turning little incidents into big accidents. Still that can work both ways if there are some clangers forthcoming from the other parties. For instance the wealth tax of the Greens generated a bit of a furore didn’t it.
I enjoyed this piece by CT. Clearly he did too, I think when he wrote it, but I think he misses a point or two. "There’s barely enough room for two populists on the New Zealand stage,” runs the conventional wisdom, “and nowhere near enough for three.” encapsulates the problem. It is the opinion of the 'political commentariat' not that of the voters, no matter how much they are tried to be manipulated.
We need to understand how and why voters vote. First there is the tribalists, the ideologues who vote red, blue green or black irrespective of policy. Then there are the populists, who sometimes also fall into an ideologue clique. But it is the swing voters who will call an election, and it is they for whom a democracy is designed. It is also for them that Winston performs best, for he possibly more than any other current politician, is able to tap into mainstream sentiments and talk about what the people on the street are actually thinking and talking about. As a maverick and not a major party, he does not make promises of bribes, but rather he promises that with his presence the Government will forced to address issues of concern to ordinary people. He does not and cannot guarantee a solution, but he does make sure those issues are in the political spotlight, often to the discomfort of the Government itself.
Trotter misses demographics, too. A bigger portion of Peter's support shuffles off every day, than of any other. Followed by both major protagonists (and a goodly smattering of commentators). The young increasingly want a life, and increasingly resent being shafted. Whoever has them, has the future. I heard Peters walked onto the stage with a younger associate? Tells us he's aware of the problem.
All that stuff about keeping them honest, applying the handbrake, reining in the naive and woke ideas etc. just doesn't wash, Peters.
When you appointed the leader who came a fairly distant second to the leader with the most votes, you became responsible for all the failings.
You have contributed SFA of value during your long career, and it will be good to see the back of you.
On the nail mlpc! I've had a gutful of people telling me that we need Peters to moderate the imbeciles! NO - he created this government! Kick him out for good! I was introduced to Peters by a mutual friend when I was 20 or so at the local pub. My immediate impression of him was he was a jumped up, self important cock sparrow with severe short man syndrome! Nothing he has done since has dispelled my impressions.
My first and only time I saw him was at a retirement home in Tauranga. No greeting and he just glazed past me as if I wasn't there and headed to the elderly folks. My first impression, obviously what a jumped up little rabbit. I am now retired and he hasn't been that great for retirees, including myself,over the last three years. I have never voted for him or his party and never will. He also didn't impress me Q & A yesterday, overriding Jack on every point. Has it been said before that when he tells porkies, his eyes start to flicker. He certainly did this a lot on the show.
mlpc are you a blue voter? It sure sounds like it, an ideologue who is unable or unwilling to think. I suggest Winnie went Labour after realising that another term of National would be far too damaging for the country. I have pointed this out before; No political party in NZ should have more than three terms in office, and preferably only two, otherwise the damage they do is just too great because they start to believe their own PR too much. Clearly three years down the track, the National ideologues are finding it hard to forget and forgive.
You can pick holes in policy all you like, but in the end that is mostly just trivia. BTW I suggest KiwiBuild was destined to failure before it was born simply because it never addressed the root of the problem, but only responded to the vested interests input. The root cause being a systemic Government failure to regulate the housing market.
I'm just quoting facts.
And I'm not picking holes in policy. Labour has many good policies. It's the complete inability to deliver that's the problem - additional tertiary students, additional cops, kiwibuild, the Auckland tram, healthier homes, equiping school leavers to drive, open and transparent, etc, etc.
Winston First is still facing an SFO investigation over the dodgy way they take donations. The repugnant Jone's admin of PGF has a stench of pork-barrel corruption. Winston is obviously in poor health (just had another week off after a long medical absence last year), his complexion is sickly. He has an accumulation of actions that have angered his base and is languishing near margin of error in polling. Bullying, BS and Bluster won't save him. He's done.
Indeed - same donors apparently: $200k to National, $12k to Labour. Tribalism ^^
Do hope that Dalziel receives just reward too. Corruption needs rooting out wherever it encroaches. Having lived in a couple of developing countries it's not a thing we should tolerate as it makes almost everyone's life significantly worse.
For such reasons among others, Judith Collins should've been gone long ago. Amazing that people got so indignant about Turei yet will turn a blind eye elsewhere. Apparently tribalism only affects one side though ;)
He stopped that goon Twyford signing off on the Canadian pension fund building light rail in Auckland though Fritz, we can count our lucky stars for that, that was the biggest rip off project this side of the black stump and would have cost us millions for decades and decades.
But other than that, I'll certainly be happy to see him disappear.
“I want to keep my job, or find a new one, in a fully-functioning, Covid-free New Zealand economy.”
Whoever best promises me this will get my vote and I think many others. Is there a convincing argument that this should not be the number 1 priority?
As flawed as NZ First are, at least they have shown they listen better to the public rather than prioritizing special interest groups or Ideology. Does anyone want to trust our Universities to run a massive quarantine without any practice?
"they have shown they listen better to the public rather than prioritizing special interest groups" LOL. Vetoing efforts to put by-catch monitoring cameras on fishing boats, killing off Kermadecs Marine sanctuary, subsidies for pretty horses, (how much money did those industries throw at NZF?) chucking vast PGF sums at Northland (in hopes of winning seat). No, no pandering to special interest groups there.
All overlook-able flaws right now but fair enough. Yes, they are most defiantly corrupt and self serving, like every other party at the moment (each in their own way) so this standard is difficult to apply. None of these interest groups demanded massive changes to national policy, its misdirected tax payer money with kickbacks (I don't like this at all but there are limited options).
There is still time for Labour to look at Australia realize letting COVID back into NZ is not worth the risk and that conservation work (that was not important before COVID) is not a real job and that people might prefer to have a subsidized job in an industry so I would be able to feel slightly better when it comes to voting.
I think Trotter’s spot on. A lot of people I know wouldn’t go anywhere near Labour/Green but really, really distrust Collins. NZF is their only avenue. Labour/Green wealth tax, National’s plan to let overseas investors buy houses again. Two dead rats that many won’t swallow.
The problem is that Winston First have no backbone. What they campaign on goes out the window as soon as they get elected.
Last time around they pandered heavily to firearms licence holders with Winston, Ron Marks and Richard Prosser all fronting up and swearing black and blue that they would block new laws and crack down on the ultra vires meddling coming from the NZ Police. That won Winston the support of 250,000 people but obviously that all went out the window in this term with Winston First gleefully supporting Labour with just about everything they wanted to do.
Not to mention their other ideas of stopping foreigners buying land where they actually ended up making it easier to sell off NZ through the billion trees scheme. Plus of course immigration continues unchallenged (apart from Covid of course).
You seem to forget that NZF is a minor part of the COL and gets what it can from negotiations after an election. If they were the majority partner then things would be a lot different and they would be able to implement their policies such as immigration. Why not give them a go.
seriously -- i would suggest that they are way closer to 35/40% -- certainly in terms of influence -- they have binned a lad of projects -- grabbed a heap of ministries -- way beyond 7% and of course the billion dollar slush fund - managed to take no responsibility for anything - in fact we have heard the DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER on numerous occasions say its about time the governments sorted things out -- managing to miss the fact that he and his party are responsible for being the government == not needed not relevant wont be missed
NZF can veto anything they want to - and have on occasion. They continually show that Winston's 'bottom lines' are meaningless. NZF promised 10000 a year immigration (Labour promised ~30k a year from memory). Nothing happened there. Prior to wuflu the net migration for the coalition was only down 10-15% from National's last term (~60k annual down to ~50k annual for coalition). Failure to deliver on promises (as usual).
Yes. Produces better center-focused govt than tail-wagging-the-dog MMP that pander to fringes. Also ensures that every MP must be able to convince an electorate to vote for them, so more likely to be capable of being ministers - and can get rid of zealots and narrow populists like Winston - must have broad appeal to get elected.
Hell, no, MMP with the 5% threshold cut in half is a much more representative idea, remember the reason we went to MMP in the first place was examples like Social credit getting 21% of the vote but 2.x% of the seats under FPP.
Three or four minor parties competing to be the party to help the Lab+Green or Nat+Act combos over the line.. the big parties get to play them off and have to make minor concessions to the minor parties' core policy ideas.
Under FFP with Social Credit getting 21% of the vote, they didn't hold the balance of power. If they did, they would have been part of the government. Same with MMP. The only reason Winnie and Shane O have any say is because of this balance holding, which Wild Bill refused to go along with, probably because he could see that it wouldn't work, as has been shown. Only the Jacinda and Covid show will get Labour back in, with a very tragicomical 3 years coming up for us all.
"Blah blah, will reduce immigration to 10000 per year blah blah".
Oh yeah that was the last electoral promise, and pretty sure dementia kicked in as soon as the baubles of office were achieved. No one voted to take NZ from 4m to 5m. We need more tax payers but it must be in a sustainable planned way. Awkland is all but ruined, and the flow on effect is being felt in NZ regions as kiwis flee the resulting mess.
NZF = #notrust
You seem to forget that Labour are the majority party in the COL. NZF get what they can by negotiation at the start and by influence after. Blame Labour for not reducing immigration, it is not NZF’s fault. It is Labour and National that cannot be trusted on immigration, they both want immigrants to maintain GDP growth and the property ponzi scheme.
Winston has blown his support away on not slowing immigration. It was his cornerstone policy. Don't lay all the blame on Labour, he is part of the government too. His major corporate donors likely told him to keep the gates open to suppress wages in their factories.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Forget about Winston Peters. Forget about NZ First. Forget about Judith Collins
Labour and Jacinda Ardern will bolt in and govern alone without the Greens
If NZ First get their 5% and some members in, they will simply be consigned to the cross-benches
I have never voted Labour in my life
Don’t know if Labour can get outright power but certainly the way it is looking The Greens, without the self inflicted walloper pre last election, will do better and this time would be the larger minor party for a coalition with Labour. And NZF may well not be returned . Cannot myself even begin to see that as offering a better government though.
So it's a choice between elect Labour, who want to put in hate speech laws (read "bureaucrats control what you are allowed to say and what you can't") or National, who want to sell NZ out to an authoritarian China which is trying to extinguish an entire culture. If Winston can stop either, great. Problem is, he's great at talking, not so great at delivering, even if he's stopped a few little Green dreams along the way.
The outlier of this election are the New Conservatives. The anti China sentiment is gathering globally. Backing a lot of swing voters to be values oriented and would certainly match many other western democracies in pattern. The only kicker is if they can't score any wide ranging media airtime.
OK when the zealous identity politics woke crew do it though, because they are not 'religious' - well not in the accepted sense of the word anyway. The new conservatives will draw the fundamentalist 'pastor tells us what to do' group but not the orthodox christians who will tell any politicising minister or priest to bugger off. The former will tend to be right of centre so it is the nats who will lose most.
The Q+A programme was interesting. First, Jack Tame flummoxed Judith Collins, then Winston Peters flummoxed Jack Tame. To be fair to Judith, she went first - so Winston had the benefit of knowing what was coming, and he even told Jack, you won't get away with that with me!
Bulldust, Tame didn't flummox Collins. He was so obsessed about the point that Labour pre-fed him that he wasted time on it, then Peters delivered the killer blow telling him it was $10 billion not $6 billion. I can't wait to see the leader debates. Ardern will be like a year 13 student explaining to her parents why the last school report should be viewed in terms of attendance not outcomes. I think she will win but bow out and hand the reins to Roberston before Christmas 2021.
It was Judith that wasted the time on it being unprepared to acknowledge that only $1.8 billion was already funded, and that the balance would have to be new funding. It was a simple point she just kept denying and denying. And to what avail? Fran O'Sullivan cleared it up - stating Judith just needed to accept that the infrastructure plan is not a reallocation but a visionary plan for a greater Auckland transport corridor.
Collins mentioned it was over 10 years. Jack wasn't fast enough to think it through because he was obsessed with his Robertson supplied 'Gotcha'. The media needs to be taken to task with its acceptance of preloading from political parties. Can't wait until Ardern has her feet put to the fire, she is beyond useless, like her government.
Expat. A small taste when Woods was left stammering a hasty catch up patch up after Collins dismissed Woods' blathering that there were legal difficulties in charging for quarantine, with a classic crusher riposte 'well change the damn law then'. MSM is of course rallying to the CoL cause with revelations that Woods was supposedly already well progressed with a $3K charge policy, with the added weasel spin that it's grand the nats are getting in behind the govt on this.
I read somewhere the other day that something like 20 of the tv presenters get more than 200k per annum. Is this chap one of them? If so, obscene. Noting, I actually think he's quite good.
I have long maintained that the tv news could be chopped to 30 minutes. There's an awful lot of padding and trivial local news. I am sure they like the hour though in terms of advertising revenue.
MM agree but hold onto your steam. Remember our friend General Stillwell, Vinegar Joe on Chiang Kai Shek. “He’s a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.“ The prospect of a Labour/Greens only government is the biggest threat to economy and society imaginable.
Thinking of voting National who cosy up to China then watch this item from Australia.
https://9now.nine.com.au/60-minutes/drew-pavlou-launches-legal-action-a…
Now ask your National candidate if this what they want for New Zealand. Maybe happening already.
I get the feeling he's out to have a bit of fun this election. Having the interviewers on about praying for him, and a few chuckles here and there.
He, Collins , and Seymour make steal the limelight from Adern a bit , but wether it will translate into votes is another story.
Winnie has been told to stump up$320k for the failed court case. Good job.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…
Don't forget that the Judge did agree with him that it was a breach of his privacy, just that he couldn't prove who did it. Actually that point was a surprise to me. As a lawyer Winnie should have known going in that he would have needed quite substantial proof and a name to win. Without that he was bound to lose, and should have known.
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