By Bernard Hickey
Annual net migration hit a fresh record high in December, thanks to a continued turnaround in migration flows from Australia and a surge of migrants on student and work visas.
Economists said the near tripling of migration since 2013 was contributing to house price and rent inflation in Auckland, where half the migrants say they want to live, but was also adding to labour supply and supressing wage inflation.
A slowdown in economic growth in Australia and a change in Government policy in late 2013 to allow foreign students to work during term time have driven the turnaround. Almost a third of the net migration into Auckland in 2015 came from students from India, which is keeping upward pressure on Auckland CBD rents and downward pressure on service sector wages.
Statistics New Zealand reported net migration rose to a record high 64,930 in calendar 2015, up 27.5% from the previous year and the 17th consecutive month of record high net migration on an annual basis.
Migrant arrivals rose 12% to 121,900 in the year, while migrant departures fell 2% to 57,000. Total immigration from India rose 3,200 for the year to 14,500, while migration from Australia rose 2,000 to 25,300, migration from China rose 1,500 to 11,000 and migration from the Philippines rose 1,500 to 5,400.
However, net migration fell on a seasonally adjusted basis to 5,500 in December from 6,200 in November.
There were 800 net migrants from Australia in the full 2015 year, which was the highest net gain since the October 1991 and the third consecutive month of net gains from Australia. Net actual migration to Australia was 398 in December.
Migration through student visas rose 5,000 to 27,900 through 2015, while migration through work visas rose 4,500 to 37,800 and migration due to movements by New Zealand and Australian citizens were 1,800 to 35,700 for the year.
Student arrivals from India rose 28% during the year to 10,800, while China on 5,300 and the Philippines on 2,100 were the two next largest sources of migration.
"The biggest sources of migrants arriving on work visas in the December 2015 year were the United Kingdom, France, Australia, and Germany. Arrivals on work visas increased 14 percent from the December 2014 year. Arrivals on work visas include working holidaymakers," Statistics New Zealand said.
Another 14,100 migrants arrived on residence visas. "Most migrants gain New Zealand residence after, rather than before, arrival. Many arrive on temporary visas (eg work, student) and transfer to a residence visa after spending time in New Zealand," Statistics NZ said.
Net migration to Auckland during the year rose by 7,000 to 30,000. Canterbury was the next most popular region with 6,800, while Waikato was on 2,600, Wellington on 2,400 and Bay of Plenty on 2,100.
Visitor arrivals to New Zealand rose 10% for the year to a record high 3.13 million, including visitor numbers from China rising 34% or 91,000 to 355,900, while arrivals from Australia rose 79,000 to 1.33 million.
Economist reaction
ANZ Chief Economist Cameron Bagrie said the fall in seasonally adjusted net migration in December to 5,500 suggested some moderation, although he noted the three month annualised rate was still 71,300.
He said booming migration typically meant the same for housing and inflation, but this was tempered by low level of departures and by over-supply of housing outside of Auckland.
He noted pressure on rents due to the arrival of more students, but also pointed to the benefits to the supply side of the economy.
"An arrival pool of 122k is huge in terms of the labour market; its 3% of the population!," Bagrie said.
"Nonetheless there is no stepping aside from stimulus to both demand and supply that 64.9k additional people provide."
Net long term migration
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(Updated with more details, chart)
66 Comments
a lot of MSM now promote certain financial products as stories not just the herald some not very subtle either
one reporter at NBR puts a positive spin on a forsyth barr IPO listing that is a dog, it has lost money for investors with no hope of recovery, I am still trying to figure out if she is a friend of the major shareholder or has ties to FB, fortunately most investors can see it for the snow job it is and wont touch it
- I don't see any economic benefit to New Zealand from immigration.
- Our country would be better to live in if we had a stable population, or even a decreasing one.
- Everybody knows the Indian student industry is largely a sham.
- There is advantage to have people move around the globe, for training and careers etc. But that does not seem to be much of what the current wave of immigration is about.
I wish some of these migrants would locate into the rural areas.
I've had my place up for sale (at a bargain price, 25% less than agent initially suggested) for over a year now with no takers.
What happened to all those people who just need internet to make their living?
Or what about all those who don't need to work at all?
Before moving to the rural areas they need the following
Latte culture
Access to international airport for those business trips
Access to schools with the same education quality as Grammar and St Kents
Access to shows and top class restaraunts
in other words they ain't coming because surely these things can't be available south of the Bombays.
Hi Finite, I agree my son was two years trying to sell a lifestyle property on 2 hectares near Dunedin.
Having said that he thought he had sold it twice but each time the sale broke down because the buyers themselves could not sell their own properties. At last he recently got it sold but way below agents estimates.
It would be interesting to know how many properties do not make nearly what the agents estimate.
Agents must be in part at least partly to blame for unrealistic asking prices
The best way to check if properties are selling below their estimates is to take a look at the QV sold prices, you can usually see this listed at the bottom of the Trademe list or check the QV website.
Then compare that to the CV listing - again you can find that out on the GIS viewer for your area: http://maps.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/aucklandcouncilviewer/
I have noticed that a lot of properties are now selling in or around the 2014 CV price even for Auckland.
I think you miss my point.
The sheeple of Auckland cannot see beyond their familiar horizon.
If your goal in life is to shop, drink coffee, and soak up the illusion offered by advertising agencies promoting a consumer society then stay in Auckland.
Some people can see the attractions of open spaces, mountains, clear rivers full of trout, hills full of deer and close communities where everyone knows everyone and looks out for each other.
There maybe lots of people who agree but cannot afford to be without a salary and shackled to a desk/factory.
I am lucky to be free of such ties through wise life choices.
I'm just surprised that there are not more migrants in similar circumstances.
Looks a lovely property. I think the photos however give the impression of it being quite steep land - even in the immediate vicinity of the house yard. I'd suggest more photos of flat lawns/gardens to give an idea of the indoor/outdoor flow. The ad also mentions 16ha of flat paddocks - again you need pictures which show them off (as well as any infrastructure such as fencing, races, paddock irrigation, implement sheds etc).
It seems to me your target market is a young entreprenurial family wanting to do the self-sufficiency lifestyle thing - perhaps combined with guiding/outdoor pursuits as a side line activity. But they will want to get a feel of areas of land for planting tree and vegetable crops, as well as running livestock. And things like having timber available for woodfire heating etc. is also important.
Best of luck with the sale.
finite - my weekend consisted of boating on Manukau harbour (practically 360 of bush views) then out over the bar for some Marlin fishing. A visit to a waterfall surrounded by native bush. Gardening on my quarter acre section to harvest fresh veges - of which we supply 100% of our own at this time of year. Life in Auckland is NOT what you make out.
Keep waiting - your target market is limited to kiwi refugees escaping the Auckland ant-nest
They will come one day
Listening to talk-back radio last week - interesting discussions
The bulk of new migrants into New Zealand come from large cities, ie London, Hong Kong, Beijing, Sydney where they prefer the hubbub of the teaming masses who are not interested in open spaces and rural life - they will stay in the city where they can maintain (of a sort) the lifestyle they left
The talk-back host offered the opinion that he could not understand the attraction of Auckland over Sydney, making Auckland property prices dearer than Sydney which has far superior transport and infrastructure
Yeah, jobs basically. I and my wife would love to live out but there simply is not the work available for one or other of us or worse both. I think most migrants come here a) having little (especially SA) money. b) people with some money dont come here I think. they think differently and want to earn more and be seen to be doing so. Of course there is also the arts, music and theatre which my wife is very keen on and we'd lose much ease of access to that by moving out.
To fund NZ schools & Universities (by International fees), to follow the UN mandate to turn every country into a melting pot, to welcome every dollar coming into NZ properties & business regardless, to remove our values/heritage, to pump (auto correct wanted to change this to 'pimp'!) the economy up an easy artificial way by immigration, - National Govt will need to change their name soon - as they have lost sight of the national interest -
I agree totally, however (and there's always a however) I strongly believe that all industrialized countries are after good quality, young immigrants who will work, create jobs and pay tax which will help pay for the demographic time-bomb which is just around the corner.
Here's an example of an aging population: "...discarded homes are spreading across Japan like a blight in a garden. Long-term vacancy rates have climbed significantly higher than in the United States or Europe, and some eight million dwellings are now unoccupied, according to a government count. Nearly half of them have been forsaken completely — neither for sale nor for rent, they simply sit there, in varying states of disrepair.
These ghost homes are the most visible sign of human retreat in a country where the population peaked a half-decade ago and is forecast to fall by a third over the next 50 years. The demographic pressure has weighed on the Japanese economy, as a smaller work force struggles to support a growing proportion of the old, and has prompted intense debate over long-term proposals to boost immigration or encourage women to have more children."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/24/world/a-sprawl-of-abandoned-homes-in-…
And another example - love the old man's quote.
"What is left behind is a region twice the size of Belgium but so devoid of people that it rivals the Arctic provinces of Lapland as the least populated zone in Europe. For every square kilometre, there are fewer than eight inhabitants."
Two years ago his least neighbour died. “You get used to the loneliness,” says Mr López, 76, as he watches his sheep graze on the meadow above Motos. Besides, he adds, “there is nothing better than a man alone who can live with himself”.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/09fde45a-8053-11e4-9907-00144feabdc0.html#sli…
It's change Profile. Change means that things are not the same as yesterday. But that does not make it a problem as such. Get over it.
If you are worried about the costs of land going back to fallow, the cost of buildings being cleared away, then you should be worried about the huge costs of establishing infrastructure (rail loop?) where there is population growth. It's not only expensive, but also destructive.
My view is that we would benefit from being able to live in the best places, and not scrambling for room. Given the way the Japanese have paved the whole place in concrete, it's an improvement for them to have some space in between now.
There are 18K listed jobs just on Seek (10K of them are in Auckland), discounting smaller jobs that are listed on sites like student job search. So I wouldn't say there is no work of any kind, just that they aren't filled.
However, compare this to Melbourne (similar population to NZ), there are 32K jobs listed. We know where the growth is, certainly not NZ.
Perhaps your nephew's good degree is not as good as the migrants'? Many of them have degrees from universities that are higher ranked than NZ universities. Many have Masters degrees in addition to years of experience. At least that is my observation at my workplace.
I agree with you, the influx should be 1/2'd IMHO making more openings for NZers and better pay. Based on my experience most employers want to employee ppl who can do the job already but are only willing to pay peanuts, this is sort of how I started after marrying a kiwi girl. So the Q is how to change the Govn's attitude, vote National out in 2017 or put up and shut up I guess.
Oh and I suppose the Q is what degrees, there are lots of poor ones IMHO.
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