Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
First Credit Union cut their one and two year fixed rates today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank cut a number of rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
GOING LONGER NOW
Homeowners are making a big shift to fixed mortgages with longer terms. The latest monthly RBNZ figures show that in March one and two-year fixed mortgage terms were very much back in vogue, while far fewer customers went for floating terms.
MORE AFFORDABLE?
The average estimated build costs for new homes has been slowly declining. Further, the large fall in the estimated build costs of retirement village units possibly signals a shift towards more affordable housing in the retirement sector.
ANZ PROFIT 'JUMPS', BUT ...
ANZ NZ reported a +23% jump in half-year profit, boosted by hedging gains. Without the hedging adjustments, their half year profit was up just +0.5% to $1.161 bln. CEO Antonia Watson sees both green shoots and challenges ahead. (When reporting profits, bank bosses always say the future is uncertain.) They say almost 40% of home loan borrowers are ahead on repayments by at least 6 months.
LARGE RECENT DETERIORATION
The nine month Crown accounts to March 2025 were released today and the covering commentary noted they came in close to the last HYFEU forecasts. But a year-on-year comparison shows an Operating Balance deficit of -$4.484 bln compared to a +$1.740 bln surplus in the year to March 2024. It is also a large a negative shift at the OBEGAL level, -$8.370 bln for the nine months to March 2025, compared to -$5.039 bln for the same period in 2024. Just isolating the March month, this year the OBEGAL deficit was -$1.790 bln, substantially larger than the -$828 mln in March 2024.
BETTER RETAIL AHEAD?
NZ Post's online retail commerce update for Q1-2025 is suggesting that the segment is growing again. They say we spent $1.5 bln online on physical goods in the first quarter of2025, +7% more than the year before. The average shopper purchased more often and spent more online overall in this quarter than one year ago, they noted.
NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% so far today. That means it is up +3.4% for the past week, down -3.9% since the start of the year, and up +6.6% from this time last year. There are 42 gainers today led by Gentrack, Synlait, The Warehouse and Chorus. There are 33 decliners led by Ryman, Restaurant Brands, Infratil and Summerset.
STRONG DEMAND
There were 119 bids today for the $450 mln in NZ Government bonds tendered in three maturities. Almost $1.7 bln was bid, but only 37 of the bids won anything. Yields were slightly lower for the April 2029 amd May 2036 maturities, but higher for the rare May 2051 maturity.
IMPOSING CREDIT STANDARDS
In Australia, they changed their laws making it clearer that buy-now-pay-later contracts were covered by their National Credit Code (which is Schedule 1 to their National Credit Act). ASIC has now issued regulatory guidance for the BNPL sector.
SWAP RATES UNCHANGED
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed today across all durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.39% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.28%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.53% and was down -8 bps to 4.48% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is on 4.29%, down -1 bp.
EQUITIES MOSTLY POSITIVE AGAIN
The NZX50 is up +0.2% today, and the ASX200 is also up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.2% as well in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong is up +1.1% while Shanghai is up +0.8%, both sensing positivity due from the upcoming trade talks. Singapore has opened unchanged. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade up +0.4% on the S&P500 after some volatility when the Fed gave its briefing.
OIL SLIPS
The oil price is down -US$1 at US$58.50/bbl in the US, and US$61.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE STAYS LOW BUT FIRMISH
The carbon price is risen +50c to NZ$50.50/NZU and again on modest volumes. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$12/oz from yesterday at this time to US$3401/oz.
NZD EASES
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 52.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 67.1, and down -10 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN RISES FURTHER
The bitcoin price is at US$98,774 which is up +2.4% from the price this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest, at +/- 1.5%.
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24 Comments
Two good pieces of political news out of the US;
https://nz.news.yahoo.com/pence-constitution-binds-us-across-133123839…
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ann-telnaes-quit-washington-post-220525423.h…
Everyone I know there wants to leave.
It's kinda hard to see the woods from the trees, views range from "it'll be fine" to "looting and riots in the streets"
If I were China, I'd take the economic loss just to see how crazy shit gets.
Yes, more folks join the coalition of the disgusted on a daily basis.
Reminiscent of the upswell against President Nixon. Just think if Nixon had had the cloak of immunity President Trump is afforded, Watergate would have been dismissed as no more than a trickle in the gutter. The Americans have steadily and progressively allowed, if not catalysed, the erosion of all the restraints and protection installed by their great forefathers to prevent the executive abuse of power currently on show. Call it the great undoing if you like.
Ukraine and Russia
Israel and most of its neighbors
Sudan
India and Pakistan
US having a trade war with China
Not a good time to have such a dearth in global leadership.
Drop one 'r'.
Sorted.
Can't help it
Quarter Scottish on my mum's side
My maternal grandmother was 150% Irish.Came from a scrawny, almost desperate, little fishing community, just east of Cork. Fortunate enough to visit there myself during an Atlantic display of power. It was tough and as was she, as tough on the outside as soft on the inside.The moral of the story, right up to her final birthday at 95, she never failed to roll her R’s.
Today I learned that during the Irish famine, Ireland actually produced more than enough food, but exported most of it. When the potato crop failed, the locals couldn't afford food priced for a larger market.
So basically we have learned nothing.
They didn't 'export it', at least, not willingly.
The English forced them to produce food for the English.
The were left to subsist on spuds - till the spuds went off and monoculture was proven somewhat less than resilient.
During the early troubles, post 1916 uprising and so forth, the community depended on the hazardous business of cockles, the little cove is little more than than rocks and waves, but nevertheless the British patrolled off shore and harpooned any vessel that put to sea. My grandmother was one of eight sisters.The only brother went down in a notorious ambush of the black and tans which does not need to be. named
They didn't 'export it', at least, not willingly.
The English forced them to produce food for the English.
I was using words charitably.
Taxed Indian industry to oblivion
Got the Chinese hooked on opiates
Nothing new under the sun.
Yep, the Malthusian nutters have form. Grain exports flowed to feed English horses but Irish peasants notsomuch.
"..In 1798, a British economist theorized that the world population would outlast the capabilities of food production. That is, as the population increased, agriculture would never be able to keep up with the continuously increasing demand. In response to Malthus’s theory, one solution to this problem was to decrease the ever-growing population. In fact, it was this very same kind of thinking that prevailed in Great Britain in the 1840s.
In the eyes of the sophisticated British, the Great Famine was an indication that Malthus’s presumptions were correct. No aid was directed towards the Irish simply because the British believed that overpopulation was the cause of Irish demise, not a potato disease. One million people died because of the blight. Yet, a country more than capable of diminishing this mass death turned a blind eye."
https://talansaylor.medium.com/thomas-malthus-and-the-irish-famine-faa2…
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-malthus-is-still-wrong/
Those that managed to voyage east to “the new world” were neither pioneers nor settlers. They were escapees.
And Malthus was 100% correct.
Merely staved off by the one-off fossil fuel bonanza.
Actually it was because we overcame high infant mortality rates.
But NVM
Never thought much of Pence until that day. I underestimated the courage and integrity of the man.
Got my house insurance premium update today. They said they're cancelling the 50 years plus and multi policy discount. Neither apply to me. Also they're adjusting for actual risk based on region
My premium went down about $20 a month.
Makes me think though. Why have I been cross-subsidising those older than 50?
Why have I been cross-subsidising those older than 50?
Because most of our rules are set up to benefit that demographic?
Because over 50s are a lower risk? In which case you’re not subsidising them.
I have no idea whether over 50s are a lower risk than not but anyway.
I guess the actuaries decided no, otherwise they wouldn't have changed the policy
Also they're adjusting for actual risk based on region
My understanding is that it will be more specific than that, it will be based on the actual address (eg hillside, beach front ,earthquake prone etc).
Some will be up for some substantial increases.
BTC just broke $100k again.
Will be interesting to see if it retreats or marches on
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