Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news today's Fed positioning is less hawkish than markets had expected.
The US Fed policy announcement today brought no change in their rate targets at 5.25-5.50%. They did note that ongoing inflationary pressures and a tight labour market has stalled progress toward bringing inflation back down to its 2% target in 2024, and they won't shift their rate signals until they actually see progress.
In addition they said they will slow their quantitative tightening activities starting from June 1, 2024. That means they will reduce their balance sheet by only US$25 bln per month from the previous US$60 bln per month.
In remarks after the policy announcement, Fed boss Powell said their next move is unlikely to be a rate hike. Equity markets like that, yields fell, and the greenback eased. But part of the lack of action could be its desire not to make large policy moves in an election year.
Meanwhile the widely-watched ISM factory PMI slipped back into contraction in April, just marginally weaker than the Markit version. The ISM version is usually lower than the Markit one, but both generally move in the same direction. Currently that is a softening.
That came as the US JOLTS job openings report declined by 325,000 from the previous month to 8.488 million in March, so really only a very small change. But markets noticed the slowdown.
But the ADP Employment Report beat estimates adding +192,000 workers to their payrolls in April, more than the expected +175,000 increase but less than the March gain of +208,000. Hiring was broad-based, they found.
All this comes ahead of Saturday's (NZT) US non-farm payrolls report which is expected to record a solid employed labour force gain of +243,000.
Because of the widespread May Day holidays around the world yesterday, there is little other international data released overnight.
In Australia, their statistics agency released "employee living cost indexes" (LCI) separate from the consumers price index (CPI). In March, their CPI came in at 3.6%. But the employee LCI came in at 6.5%, mainly because of the sharp rise in their variable mortgage rates which pass through there very quickly. It was notable that the other groups, especially retirees, did not suffer much of a variation from the CPI in their own LCIs.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.61% and down -7 bps from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is now at -38 bps and more. And their 1-5 curve inversion is also more at -57 bps. Their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is now at -75 bps and 3 bps more. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.55% and up +4 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.31%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.99% and up +3 bps.
Wall Street has risen +1.0% the S&P500 after the Fed announcement. Overnight European markets mostly closed for a holiday. Yesterday Tokyo fell -0.3%. Hong Kong and Shanghai and Singapore were all closed for the May Day holiday. The ASX200 ended its Wednesday session down a sharp -1.2% and the NZX50 ended down its own chunky -0.8%.
The price of gold will start today up +US$9 from this time yesterday at US$2303/oz.
Oil prices are down another -US$2 from yesterday at just under US$79/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$83.50/bbl and down even more.
The Kiwi dollar starts today unchanged from yesterday at just over 59 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 90.9 AUc. Against the euro we are also holding at 55.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 68.8 and down -10 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$57,694 and another -4.3% lower that this time yesterday. And this is a new two month low. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained very high at just on +/- 3.9%.
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88 Comments
This is exactly what I expected from @secyellen
Yield Curve Control from the Treasury to offset what the FOMC is doing to drain the Eurodollar markets. Link
Bank of England tweaks lifetime loss estimate for QE programme
Based on the market path for interest rates as of late March, the QE programme looks set to generate a net loss of 85 billion pounds by 2034, compared with an estimate in February of 80 billion pounds.
In March, their CPI came in at 3.6%. But the employee Living Cost Index came in at 6.5%, mainly because of the sharp rise in their variable mortgage rates which pass through there very quickly.
Now, remember folks. When the prices of things in the CPI basket go up - that's proper inflation and you need to hike interest rates before wages catch fire. However, when your mortgage costs go up, that's not inflation, and workers won't push for higher wages because they absolutely understand the difference.
For those at the back, it is now very clear that our sticky inflation started with imported fuel prices, quickly moved into imported food and fertiliser, before RBNZ added higher interest costs to businesses and households. All of these extra costs pushed businesses to increase prices, and workers to demand more money. Then, to top it off, our insurance costs went crazy because climate change appears to be real and building costs have gone up. Local Govt then dropped huge rate rises because we have deferred infrastructure maintenance and development for years.
Now demand is collapsing but prices are proving stubborn. Why? Firstly, large swathes of the population are unaffected by higher interest rates - in fact households overall are net beneficiaries of higher rates in cash terms (it is businesses that are the big losers). Secondly, our businesses price on cost + margin and our dominant wholesaler sector has significant flexibility to reduce capacity / costs while protecting margins (they just order less and let a couple of warehouse casuals go). Wholesalers are also uncompetitive and huge ($155bn of sales per year - that's the same as total NZ wages!) When the little guys can't make money, they don't sell things at a loss for long, they just downsize or pack up.
Dipping in to anecdote for a minute, the guy that used to run the dairy near my office couldn't make it work with higher rents, energy costs etc. Did he slowly go bankrupt? Nope, he shut up shop and went to stack shelves at the New World down the road. Did his shop closing make other local shops drop their prices?
So you don’t think Adrian should keep trying to make that builder in Kawerau with the young family go broke because they were told to “spend to save the economy” back when rates were zero because of the negligence of the Wellington council over decades to ignore their water problem??!!
I was being facetious. I agree with you completely. Have been of this view for a long time. It’s A fundamental flaw in monetary theory that they assume away the cost of money. Have a read of Robert Fitzgibbon on LinkedIn he talks about economics being complex dynamic systems. Makes more sense than a theory magic’d up in the 70’s
Labour was already half way done ruining the economy by the time Covid came. Their ridiculous policies during that time, including lock down forced many business owners to borrow heavily against their homes to save the businesses, which was temporary as many are now going under. The debt remains of course, and it’s against their remaining asset, housing, which is quickly losing value. Borrow and spend to save the economy was a mirage…..the economy was already stuffed, Covid spending just kept it alive a little bit longer.
We are not back on track. Far from it. There is a big mess to clean up, but hopefully we will get there eventually. Messes like this are not cleaned up this quickly. They have made a great start however.
There is good support for the government to continue on its track (if you exclude the fake TVNZ poll from a few days back). Roy Morgan poll was out yesterday showing Labour still stuck on 23% and Nats on 38 and a full 10-12% difference between the left and right.
Many complaints about TVNZ polls, most probably sour grapes from them. I’d ask for another round of staff cuts there if I was the minister with responsibility for TVNZ. The left bias needs to be removed from that organisation. They need to be more balanced or cease to exist, which will probably happen over time anyway as more and more people switch off.
Interesting too that Labour and National were pretty united on the COVID time policy approaches too, National only insisting they'd do more faster better.
The above posts re Labour ruining and National setting right are high in feels and generalisations but low in any specifics. This is the way.
Neither of them seem to have been very willing to address the big issues. Though the current direction of borrowing to fund tax cuts for property speculators while resorting to austerity for healthcare despite an aging population seems nonsensical. They're upping welfarism for the unproductive property speculators while raising costs on working Kiwis. Seems a govt of entitlement mentality, for those with too much entitlement to living off other people's money.
https://www.national.org.nz/businesses-struggling-day-to-day-under-covi…
Todd McClay Sep 2021
“The Government this week again said it would consider more support for businesses as the Covid lockdown restrictions drag into a fifth week. However, for too many business it will be too late – unless Grant Robertson acts now.
“The number of likely business casualties is growing daily without additional Government assistance. Levels of distress in Auckland are extreme, and small businesses around the country continue to struggle.
“Kiwis have done everything asked of them by the Government. We have all made significant sacrifices. But businesses need the Government to recognise their sacrifice and make a decision on additional support.
Do you seriously think this cluster miraculously started in 2017 with a change to Labour...we have decades of poor government of every hue...all colours have kicked the can down the road,avoiding real investment in infrastructure and our futures. We are complicit in their failures by buying into the right vs left rhetoric,allowing whomever is in charge to blame it on the previous administration...And any information we don't like these days is fobbed off as 'fake news'.
It certainly did. The first thing that Labour did was start adding costs to landlords and farmers and increased regulation on everyone. They had this crazy idea that the costs would not get passed on, and of course they were, pushing people into hardship and exploding the queue for state housing. This is what they absolutely did do, and this was the beginning of the mess, which has only been further enhanced by subsequent events.
OK, so then rents didn't go up, food prices did not increase due to extra regulation none of this happened....everything must be peachy. Thanks for the info. How do you explain how the excellent financial management and rule making over the last six years led us to this utopia we are now in then.
Oh,I'm sorry,when in history have rents gone down?....We are how ever seeing house prices head down....
You don't think a global pandemic which had a similar effect of a war may have had something to do with inflation...fuel,supply chain issues,Ukraine war affecting fertiliser prices,trade sanctions against Russia ...do you know how the aviation industry has been impacted by Russia being one of the biggest producers of titanium?...the 2 massive weather events which destroyed our crops just as we came out of covid...you may notice fruit & vege prices have plummeted recently.
Who ever was in charge through this period would have had issues...it's just a 'reckon' that having someone else incharge would have improved things,folks are just 'Monday Morning Quarterbacks' saying they know it would have been handle better,no one knows how Todd Muller,Judith Collins or Soimon Brudges would have coped or handled the poison chalice that was covid.
Like I said...this train has been derailed for many years.I am in no way saying the last lot were perfect or even close,but NZ Inc didn't start in 2017.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300327451/the-worst-decision-by-…
OPINION: If I was to ask the public for the worst decision ever by a New Zealand politician, I would get a wide range of answers.
And if I said the worst decision was made on December 15, 1975, few would know what I was referring to.
But few economists would disagree that Robert Muldoon’s decision to cancel the fledgling New Zealand Superannuation Scheme on that day was probably the worst financial decision ever made.
Why? Because had it continued, New Zealand would now be one of the richest countries in the world.It is hard to predict how much we would have saved and the investment returns but however I cut the numbers, we would have at least $500 billion saved in our own individual retirement accounts.
And in the "you couldn't make this sh*t up column..." this govt proposes allowing people to withdraw their kiwi saver to pay the rental bond...talk about feed the ponzi...
"..The next National government will allow people under 30 to draw down on their KiwiSaver savings to help them get together bond payments for tenancy agreements, says National’s Housing Spokesperson Chris Bishop."
National raids the younger generations' retirement scheme to benefit property speculators for a second time!
A government of entitlement to other people's money!
Meanwhile, they handed out tens of millions more of taxpayers' hard-earned money to commercial property that got wet...
OK, so that is not the answer to the question, but anyway. the answer is yes, decisions made after 2017 started the increases in prices, followed by bad Covid policies led to the disaster we now have.
I do agree with you however, that the 1975 decision was a bad one, but the reality is that some government would have robbed the superfund or cancelled it by now and Kiwis don't have the ability to save anyway. We now have KiwiSaver, which is a poorly designed useless system made for stupid people, and the only people getting anything out of it are fund managers. I'm not part of KiwiSaver, but, when it started I was in my early 20s, and I already had 100K+ in a private super fund. Initially I did ask whether I could convert this into a KiwiSaver account, but of course the answer is no, there would be a 20K penalty for withdrawing early (conversion was counted as a withdrawl) and so the balance of my KiwiSaver would be reduced by 20K. So that was absolutely pointless. The system ended up penalizing actual savers (like myself) that should have been part of KiwiSaver. I'm actually glad I am not part of that stuff up. I don't pay fees, and most months my returns are now higher than most peoples entire KiwiSaver balances. If we had a proper system like they have in Australia, then it would be much better utilized and much more successful.....and if we had had it since 1975, then I agree we would be in much better shape.
In other parts of their poll they are taking the YES part of the voting and then adding the No, don’t know and don’t care responses and adding them all up as NO and saying the majority vote is NO. Sorry, but when you take a question and there are 40% YES, and 41% NO and the publish 40% YES and 60% NO as your poll result, then that is fake news. It’s probably part of a number of the complaints to the BSA about their reporting in this instance, as it is clearly wrong or fake or whatever you want to call it. So, it’s fake news.
+1 it's long past time this was called out by more people because the MSM are never going to admit it
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2024/05/tvnz_and_poll_results.html
Just don't call it fake news, tut tut. Even though it is, we can just pretend that the people who are supposed to be the best news editors and reporters in the country cannot read or understand numbers, let alone add them together or present them in an honest way or tell the truth about them.
Err...looks like actually a failure of English reading comprehension from David Farrar there, picked up and run with by fans?
One News: "Just 40% of people support the Government's Fast-track Approvals Bill, while 60% don't, didn't know, or didn't want to say"
Then David Farrar's reinterpretation of it:
To add together those against, those unsure and those who didn’t answer as 60% not in support is very misleading.
One worries the flouncing about over horrid mainstream media is a little subject to confirmation bias in that case. But then, folk on the fringes of both sides are finding plenty of their own examples to justify why the mainstream media is anti their favourite people and parties in particular.
The first complaint re sensationalist language was interesting, justifiable, and bipartisan, that TV news is using too sensationalist of language. That's definitely a problem we see in a lot of media that has to compete for ad revenue and becomes click-baity.
I think the recent ruling on John Campbell sums it up. Apparently he has two hats. One a reporter of the news. Two a columnist providing opinion pieces. Not unprecedented. You could describe Walter Cronkite similarly. But it seems those two elements of let’s say journalism for the hell of it, now more often than not overlay each other and that becomes obviously both confusing and disturbing. TVNZ as public broadcasters have a statutory obligation of politically neutral public service for very obvious reasons. If they, the personnel involved, either cannot perceive that or are unwilling to respect it, then they are not fulfilling their responsibilities and need to move out and on.
Go and look at the UK newspapers from late 2010 and 2011 when the new Conservative coalition Govt came in promising to cut Government waste / debt and turbocharge the economy with private finance deals, enterprise zones, and supporting businesses to thrive by getting Govt out of the way etc etc. You could copy and paste these articles into NZ newspapers today - just change Osborne for Willis, Cameron for Luxon.
The 'strategy' that national are pursuing is as macroeconomically clueless as Osborne's was in 2010. Everything they are doing will make things worse for the vast majority of people - apart from for the top few per cent that hold enough rent-generating assets to make money no matter the chaos around them. Note that the UK austerity didn't reduce the 'debt' at all - it has been higher ever since (not that it matters really).
Now, I am no fan of the Labour Party, but as National destroy the economy, maybe they will gain the confidence to suggest some of the things that the country actually needs to move forward - capital gains / land tax, a managed deflation of the property bubble, long-term infrastructure investment that isn't financed by offshore hedge funds (creating a juicy flow of dividends offshore), an unashamed focus on investing in the public services we need (education, 21st century health system etc).
Businesses *reduced* their debt burden through 2020 by about $8bn because Govt piled in subsidies, paid wages etc. This was the first reduction in business debt for 10 years! The data is on the RBNZ website.
No, SMEs reduced their debts by about the same % as the big guys. That data is here.
In terms of types of businesses, like hospo, the data is here. The % debt reduction from Dec 19 to Dec 20 - by ANZSIC code:
- Agriculture -1%
- Dairy -4%
- Sheep, beef cattle & grain farming 1%
- Horticulture 12%
- Other agriculture -2%
- Forestry & logging -17%
- Aquaculture, fishing, hunting & trapping 1%
- Agriculture, forestry and fishing support services -3%
- Mining -9%
- Food product, beverage & tobacco manufacturing -8%
- Textile, leather, clothing & footwear manufacturing -5%
- Wood, paper & printing manufacturing -23%
- Other manufacturing -14%
- Electricity, gas, water & waste services -15%
- Construction -13%
- Wholesale trade -13%
- Retail trade -16%
- Accommodation & food services -2%
- Transport, postal & warehousing -15%
- Information media & telecommunications 2%
I'm here all week.
Well, if you knew anything at all you would know that the dairy industry as a whole is over 100B in debt, so if they reduced their debt by 4%, then that is 4B, possibly more. So, like I said it is mostly large industries (like Dairy). Go have a look at how much Fonterra owed at the time, plus the mortgage debt of all their farmers.
Dairy industry debt is actually 60B, which I took to be US dollars, but it is not. In the year or two after July 2019 dairy 'farmers' paid back 2B in debt. Fonterra also paid back multiple billion in debt as a result of is sell down of various assets, so between 2-4 billion. So the dairy industry total will be between 2-6 billion of the total debt reduction. Debt is increasing now due to higher interest rates, so the reductions have probably been wiped out already.
PS: Fonterra debt at the end of 2019 7.2 billion. Now, 4.1 billion. There is 3 billion there, the restructure and significant payback started 2020.
https://www.farmersweekly.co.nz/news/farm-debt-gathers-pace-as-big-sque… (one year ago).
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/primary-sector/farm-debt-mediation-u… (Now)
I don't think it matters whether Fonterra's debt reduction was via payback of corporate bonds or bank debt or whatever. Debt is debt.
The article is using the $60bn figure for total agricultural debt (it makes this clear, and discusses how dairy debt has fallen).
During COVID, debt fell across sector. When RBNZ got macho and started hiking rates, the parts of the agricultural sector that rely heavily on revolving credit did struggle (horticulture).
Listen to yourselves. Same old shit day after day. Right vs Left, he said she said. It’s not working. It never has. You all get yourselves into a lather at election time (I know, cheap entertainment), someone “wins” and we wait 3 or 6 years before they get chucked out and the other team gets another go. And on and on it has gone. It’s actually embarrassing that we put up with it. Very little is achieved, and what does get done, is never done properly.
Time to wipe the slate clean and begin a new system, and I have the answer. Abolish central government. Create 4 states for NZ and each state take care of itself. I know there’ll be details to sort out (foreign affairs, international trade, etc, etc) and I do have answers for some of that.
Enough is enough.
That would certainly be interesting for internal migration. Could work well. More local taxation and less central redistribution. A rush to places with more well-maintained infrastructure that won't require the same level of rates rises. And probably more allowance for intensifying to share that burden.
It's even worse than you imagine, Frank.
While we're shuffling political parties around we have an unelected reserve bank using outdated economic theory to actively shift wealth from the have-nots to the haves. You really can't make this stuff up. But that's how it is.
Yah more govt - yeah lets -and we will need a federal govt and maybe a president - Donny T might be available as he will need a bolt hole
new passports and border control -and money -why only 4 states I want my own
or maybe just transfer more of the decision making to a smaller number of councils along with a level of taxation so that they can deliver locally
I think perhaps we have arrived at the point where our duopolies and oligopolies are so embedded that they are "too large to fail" and therefore we are essentially a captured market.
This government honestly has so much on it's hands trying to normalise the shit-show they were left to sort out I think they will run out of runway to address this set of systemic dysfunction.
The case for becoming the 7th state of Australia is getting stronger by the day. Whether they would have us on the other hand...
"....I think perhaps we have arrived at the point where our duopolies and oligopolies are so embedded that they are "too large to fail" and therefore we are essentially a captured market......"
We are certainly captured. And remember these oligopolies don't make money from efficiency, they make money from control. So they don't worry to much about the ups and downs.
Ordinary New Zealanders need to get real, understand the world is not there to do us favours and understand how much we are milked.
A big stick is needed
The FT is beginning to catch on after a protracted period of denial.
Military briefing: Ukraine battles to hold vital stronghold Chasiv Yar
Alistair Crooke: America's False Dawn
Still cheering on the fascists huh Audaxes? Surprised Gaetz has time to do any actual governing?
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2021/04/us-congressman-accused-of-…
Ignore palmtree... Keep posting the links that have different views from a few commentators with tunnel vision on this website. I view your links as additional info to chew on. Its immaterial whether you believe in them or not.
it appears that Gaetz is a bit of a pervert but that doesn't mean he can't have a view of US military or other US issues
They've shown no willingness to reduce business monopsonies' ability to farm Kiwis before, actively worsening things in their last stint in govt before Key left to lead one of the banks that benefited. They also seem happy to allow another one to happen in the Pharmacy sector.
They can't austerity their way to better healthcare and education outcomes while borrowing to fund tax cuts for property speculators (and tobacco donors). Just as they cannot car their way to solving congestion, while benefitting road transport companies yet undermining Cook Strait freight volumes. These seem areas they're embracing a rather antifacts direction.
All looks a bit like little planning occurred during opposition years, perhaps reinforced by the use of so many working groups by other names.
Their continuing to undermine productive work to benefit property speculators will only incentivise more of the skilled to leave, including healthcare workers.
We have had a few opportunities to just join Australia over the years when we hit currency parity and our dollar was worth the same as theirs or close enough to it. The problem is Australians treat Kiwis like shit, its embedded in their culture and us "Joining" them or wanting to be treated equally will not work for generations.
Hey Jfoe,
Love your posts. Question about the above,
"However, when your mortgage costs go up, that's not inflation,"
"Firstly, large swathes of the population are unaffected by higher interest rates - in fact households overall are net beneficiaries of higher rates in cash terms"
I can't work out from this whether you're saying higher interest rates are good or bad for households, I'm not being pedantic, just trying to better understand.
Thanks.
Higher interest rates create winners: people who get a higher rate of interest on their cash savings (protecting their value), and losers: people with mortgages, particularly 30 - 40 years olds who have taken on big mortgages recently.
Overall, the 'winners' get more interest paid to them than the 'losers' pay out on their mortgages. So households overall do 'OK'. RBNZ obviously know this - but they think that consumer demand will still fall because the winners save their gains rather than spending it (and this is how it plays out).
What RBNZ tend to miss is that many of our businesses get hammered by the high cost of credit - and they can and do pass on that cost to their customers.
And worse, over time the pool (size of) of winners decreases and the pool of losers increases....to the point the 'middle' (class?) disappears.
Played for long enough all assets will reside with one entity (individual?).....something the current 'winners' may wish to consider.
Excepting of course, that point will not be reached as eventually the losers decide enough is enough.
the winners save their gains rather than spending it (and this is how it plays out).
Yep - https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/series/lending-and-monetary/deposit…
Look at those TDs go.
Though I'm a little confused by:
the 'winners' get more interest paid to them than the 'losers' pay out on their mortgages
I assume you mean on an individual basis and not aggregate? ie 1 "winner" individually gets paid more than 10 "losers" individually pay? At an aggregate level surely more is paid in interest on bank assets than banks pay on their liabilities? Look how much money is sitting in transaction accounts in the above link, a quarter of all broad money pays no interest at all. Bring on CBDC
Yes, at an aggregate level, banks interest payments are 50% to 60% of the interest they collect (RBNZ S21 has the data) - the rest pays for operational costs and a fat return to their parent companies in Aus.
However, households (as a sector) get more interest paid to them than they pay out. Stats NZ publish the data - a graph of that data is here.
How can this be? Because businesses are big net payers of interest.
Pretty good summary here, one of the better Herald writers.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/political-roundup-discontent-and-gloom-do…
Keep those windows open chaps.
"If all indoor spaces where people gather are consistently supplied with fresh air through ventilation (<1000 ppm CO2), respiratory infections will come to an end and disappear in any region."
No More Pandemics: Toward a World Free from Infectious Diseases
https://books.google.co.nz/books?id=x98EEQAAQBAJ&source=gbs_navlinks_s
https://www.phcc.org.nz/briefing/world-ventil8-day-how-do-our-buildings…
Windows are so old school ... The wise are using Heat Recovery Ventilation.
E.g. https://www.mitsubishi-electric.co.nz/ventilation/i/685061B/fresh-air-h… (not a plug for Mitsu although I have used these and they're pretty friggin' awesome. Much awesome down south. In Auckland, less awesome where windows do work well for about half the year. They work not just with heat when it's cold, but also with cooled air in the summer.)
Tony's view today:
"There is now no jobs growth in the New Zealand economy and wages growth is slowing. Monetary policy is definitely working and there is just one element needing to fall into place to allow the Reserve Bank to start cutting interest rates. Businesses need to cut back on their price rise plans. Unfortunately that has yet to happen and that means no cut in the official cash rate until late this year at the earliest."
Thr OCR blunt instrument is doing its job, again.
The only reason Labour is polling well is because they have shut up and gone away. Once they go back to trying to shove co-governance down people's throats, promising higher taxes to fund welfare beneficiaries, and dividing the health and education systems up based on race, people will change their minds again.
Property "speculators" were always still able to claim interest costs when paying tax on the sale of a property. They were unaffected by the loss of tax deductions of interest from rental income. This only affected long term investors who held the property beyond the Brightline or other taxable periods.
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