Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Nothing here today.
FHB HOME LOAN AFFORDABILITY STABILISES
Flat house prices at the bottom of the market, a slight easing of mortgage interest rates and rising incomes is creating some breathing space for first home buyers.
REGULATOR vs REGULATOR
As anticipated, the RBNZ today unleashed its inevitable push-back after the Commerce Commission recommended a rethink of banks' regulatory capital rules.
'SUCCESSFUL 2023 CENSUS'
Approximately five million people will be represented in 2023 Census data – more than 99% of the population. Directly, Stats NZ received census form responses for approximately 4.4 million people. Interim coverage and response rates and the findings of an independent review of the 2023 Census were released by Stats NZ today.
A 'CRUEL SUMMER' FOR RETAILERS, EARLY WINTER
Westpac's Retail Pulse analysis shows that financial pressures, including higher mortgage rates, have been a particular drag on spending on discretionary items like furnishings and dining out. In most parts of the country, spending growth has fallen below the rate of population growth, with particular softness in Auckland and Wellington. Separately, the retail industry itself is bracing for a soft winter.
WHERE THE MONEY WENT
Perhaps this retail stress is being exacerbated by households prioritising home buying. The NZ Banking Association is pointing out that new home loan volumes rose nearly +30% in the July-December half year in 2024 compared to the first half of the year. That has created a lot more embedded repayment obligation that won't be available for discretionary retail spending.
TARGETING THE VULNERABLE
The Commerce Commission is warning consumers about the risks and increasing sophistication of pyramid schemes, following the conviction of the lead New Zealand promoter of one of the biggest pyramid schemes the Commission has seen promoted here. The pyramid scheme in question, ‘Lion’s Share’, was responsible for approximately 150,000 participants worldwide losing a total of almost $17 mln. Shelly Cullen promoted a global cryptocurrency-based scheme to Māori and Pasifika communities in during 2020 and 2021. 83% of those involved lost money.
GOOD GAINS
In Japan, their factory PMI made big gains in April, meaning the sector is now stabilised and no longer contracting. Their services PMI rose at a good rate too, expanding faster. Both are now at 11 month highs.
BEST EXPANSION IN TWO YEARS
In Australia, their 'flash' PMI rose at a good clip too, expanding for a third consecutive month and at the quickest pace since April 2022. Although most of the rise was from the services sector, like Japan, their factory sector improved sharply too, to a 'stable' level.
SWAP RATES STOP RISING
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be a little lower today. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is little-changed at 5.64%, a level it has hovered around for more than 45 days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.34%. The China 10 year bond rate has dipped to 2.25% and another new all-time low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps to 4.94% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.88% and -2 bps lower. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps to 4.62%. Their 2yr is soft at 4.97%, so the curve is now -35 bps and little-changed.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.3% in late Tuesday trade. However the ASX200 is up +0.4%. Tokyo has opened its Tuesday session up +0.3%. Hong Kong is up +1.5% but Shanghai is down -0.3%. Singapore has opened up +1.3%. Wall Street ended its Monday session up +0.9% on the S&P500 despite the court case a few blocks away.
OIL STOPS RETREATING
The recent fall in oil prices seems to have ended and they have risen +50 USc to just US$82/bbl in the US, to US$86.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
GOLD FALLS BACK
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$65 from this time yesterday, now at US$2375/oz. Most of that retreat happened last night, but it is still slipping slightly today.
NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar has held since this time yesterday, still at 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down slightly at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are firmish at 55.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still at 69.1.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price has risen today from this time yesterday, now at US$66,846 and up 3.2% since then. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest +/-1.9%.
NOTICE
Thursday, April 25 is ANZAC Day in New Zealand, a public holiday. We will not be publishing that day, but will be back to normal on Friday.
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45 Comments
Yes, excess payments chugging along at around $4bn per quarter.
There will be a select group of people who can pump out more work without all the distractions of an office environment.
But the vast majority will be sitting in their Pyjamas watching cat videos getting bugger all done.
Be funny if JC worked from home, and the attendees at the water cooler are a Scottish Fold and a bobblehead of himself.
Depends on the role. My job often involves hours of reading through design documents/tender drawings, performing comprehensive material take offs and submitting a full quotation/supply package ahead of a tender closing date.
I don't need to be in an environment where people are popping their head in for a quick chat/question, people yahooing and phones ringing in the background. Have been in that situation, the quality/accuracy of my work decreases dramatically and mistakes happen.
I have busy days at home when I'm about two times more productive than any day I've done in the office. But I'm on the introverted side so i don't need the dopamine hit that some people get from social interaction.
I do enjoy going into the office, but I do so on says when I'm not so busy and I have surplus time for travel and chats with people.
Likewise introverted work-a-holic here. My dopamine hit is seeing my output numbers, not small talk with colleagues. Pa1nter must be referring to Government employees sitting around in their Pyjamas, because good luck getting away with that in the private sector.
If anything, there's a much greater incentive to not abuse the privilege or risk losing it. What I save in travel costs pays for office supplies, I have not expensed anything back to the company (A3 paper, ink, power, printer etc). The hours saved in commuting are put back into additional work hours.
Pa1nter must be referring to Government employees sitting around in their Pyjamas, because good luck getting away with that in the private sector.
Just an observation after hiring hundreds of people.
- 20-30% are going to be self motivated grafters
- 40-50% will work solidly, providing they have some sort of oversight
- the rest are going to cost you money
Sure, it depends on the person but that's a very short time frame you're working to. Unless you're working for the Government, the private sector can be very good at weeding out those there to ride the bus.
Saw it in our own company over Covid, despite having full work from home access and full guaranteed pay throughout, some people (not even in entry level positions) didn't get the work done and were caught out. Let's just say you can only do it for so long.
Reminds me of the Aussie outfit that set up operations in Timaru to repair car damage after a hail storm a few years back. The purposeful marching around in circles was a sight to behold. You notice when nothing is actually being done when in business for a while, but this outfit was impressive in its energetic unproductivety. Perhaps it's an Aussie thing?
That's the modern office thing too, unfortunately. Too much email, instant messaging and "quick call" meetings. A lot of it is just pushing stuff onto others or getting others to do one's thinking.
Today's offices tend to be loud open plan ones, too, which is terrible for any work requiring concentration but fine for those whose work is primarily discussion and email.
I tend to work from the office for some days to spend time with my team and to meet with others, but use time at home for generating output where concentration is required. Most of us do, and we are recognised for what we produce.
Another really stupid idea finally killed off.
"Wellington City Council have decided to not go ahead with the $32 million Reading Cinemas deal."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/515009/reading-cinema-wellington-co…
Interesting piece on China. The problem isn't Chinese "overcapacity", but rather Chinese under-consumption -- largely a consequence of the low share Chinese workers retain of what they produce.
Growth in Chinese production post-COVID is below trend, but China's trade surplus has surged mainly because the growth in Chinese consumption is even further below trend.
While the rest of the world tries to protect itself from the consequences of weak Chinese demand, a much better solution would be for China to boost domestic demand relative to supply. But this appears to be unlikely.
https://theovershoot.co/p/chinese-overcapacity-is-not-the-problem
Indeed. And many of these cultures (and the Chinese more specifically) have more recent societal memories of starvation and depravation.
Rather than follow the traditional model of economic growth/trade surplus, rising currency values, and rising consumption, the RMB has stayed low, the surplus has been used for foreign assets, and wages have stayed relatively low/money gets hoarded.
True. Similarly, S'pore and Malaysia were 3rd-world nations at time of independence; Vietnam was one of the poorest nations in the world after the war; and Japan / Korea were both destitute after WWII and the Korean War respectively. And the unifying element among all these nations is Confucian values.
Transport Minister Simone Brown wants to toll existing roads.
Not only do the EV users subsidise double cab utes but now road user must subsidise trucks.
The toll for a 180kg motorbike is $2.50 and a 46,000kg truck a pays $5.20 on the Northern Gateway.
33% of the toll goes to administration.
While not disagreeing with the sentiment have you considered the ongoing (and ever increasing) cost of maintenance in relation to initial outlay?
https://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Catabolic_Collapse
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