The National Party's kicking off election year with an attack on the Government's economic credentials, saying it needs to "come back from holiday with a real economic plan".
The comments from National's Finance spokesperson Nicola Willis follow release on Tuesday of the latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, which shows that a net 73% of businesses expect worsening economic conditions in coming months. That's the weakest result ever in a survey that was first conducted in 1961.
ASB economists say the results of the survey show the economy has "run into a brick wall". BNZ economists say "it's all starting to look like stagflation on steroids".
Willis said a record number of businesses were "bracing for pain in coming months".
“The Government’s failure to rein in spending and address labour shortages mean Kiwis are being slammed by rapidly rising interest rates. It’s no surprise that the cost of that failure has left businesses feeling gloomy.
“Alarmingly, the number of businesses expecting higher costs and higher prices have increased since the last survey – suggesting more cost of living pain is on the way in 2023."
Willis said Kiwis deserved a Government with an economic plan. "National would rein in wasteful spending that's adding fuel to the inflation fire, stop adding new costs and taxes, refocus the Reserve Bank on price stability, address worker shortages and let Kiwis keep more of what they earn."
In terms of the actual NZIER QSBO results, these had been expected to be bad, given that this survey was conducted in the aftermath of the Reserve Bank's last Official Cash Rate (OCR) Review and Monetary Policy Statement in late November. The statement then from the RBNZ was much more 'hawkish' than anybody expected and among many surprises had the RBNZ forecasting inflation to rise to 7.5% in the December quarter and suggested that the OCR (currently 4.25%) would go as high as 5.5% by the middle of this year.
NZIER principal economist Christina Leung said the business mood was "downbeat across the sectors".
"The building sector was the most pessimistic of the sectors surveyed, with a net 77% of firms expecting worsening economic conditions over the coming months.
"The decline in the sector’s new orders and output points to a softening in demand over the longer term. While most building sector firms still reported intense cost pressures, the proportion of firms that increased prices continued to fall in the December quarter," she said.
ASB senior economist Mark Smith said the survey's weak readings for the demand side of the economy were "consistent with recessionary conditions".
"Despite this, capacity pressures remain marked, with firms continuing to report extreme difficulties in obtaining skilled and unskilled labour, and with labour shortages still the major constraint on boosting production.
"Rather than falling, experienced and expected price rises ticked up, which along with increasing pressures on profitability and costs and the still-tight labour market highlights the risk of protracted above 3% rates of inflation.
"This, and the possibility of the economy actually proving to be more resilient than signalled by dire sentiment measures, should see the RBNZ to follow through with OCR hikes (a further 125bps expected by mid-2023 and a 5.50% OCR peak)," Smith said.
"Nevertheless, there is no sugar coating the fact that 2023 is turning out to be a difficult year. OCR cuts should follow in 2024, but not until the RBNZ is 110% confident that inflation will settle in the 1-3% target range. This still looks a long way off."
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis said the results of the QSBO were the "worst of all worlds".
"It’s all starting to look like stagflation on steroids. There is no sign inflation is abating in any meaningful way yet the survey adds more weight to our long-held argument that the economy is headed for recession. Moreover, that recession could come faster, and be much deeper, than many care to believe."
Toplis said while he understood the importance of the "actuals" in terms of hard economic data as opposed to the leading indicators, "we maintain our view that the leading indicators are so weak that the Reserve Bank should now be moderating its approach. Such softness in activity will almost inevitably lead to an easing labour market and lower inflation.
"We have never believed that a 75 point rate hike at the February meeting would be necessary, we are even more convinced of that now."
ANZ senior economist Miles Workman said if the RBNZ was looking to "spook the horses" with the November MPS, then the latest QSBO data suggest "mission accomplished".
"Now the big question is whether or not this sharper downwards momentum is maintained, or if the economy goes back to surprising us on the more robust side after the dust has settled," Workman said.
He said at face value, the latest QSBO data confirmed the RBNZ’s forecast that a softening in the economy is unfolding.
"However, the big worry in the data is the fact that costs and pricing lifted for both the past quarter (Q4) and the next (Q1). That’s going the wrong way, and suggests near-term inflation pressures remain acute (and far too high for the RBNZ to call these data ‘comforting’)."
Kiwibank economists including chief economist Jarrod Kerr, senior economist Jeremy Couchman and economist Mary Jo Vergara said Tuesday's QSBO report "supports our opinion that the RBNZ may deliver too much in the way of rate hikes and monetary tightening".
"The report may not be enough to alter the RBNZ’s view on delivering another 75bp hike in the OCR next month to 5%. Although we would advocate a lesser move (25, not 75). And financial markets are moving in favour of reduced rate hikes. The economic pendulum is clearly swinging towards downside risks, rather than upside risks. We continue to forecast a peak in the RBNZ’s cash rate in coming months, and a likely cut to that cash rate by year-end."
NZIER's Leung said that regarding activity in their own businesses, a net 13% of firms reported a decline in activity over the past quarter.
"This was the weakest since the June 2020 survey when the full impact of the first Covid-19 lockdown was captured."
Leung said the survey showed that firms are preparing for tough times ahead.
"The survey results show firms have become much more cautious and are now looking to reduce staff numbers and pare back on investment plans.
"However, shortages of skilled and unskilled staff remain acute despite the decline in hiring, with finding labour remaining the top primary constraint for businesses.
"That said, a growing proportion of firms are also starting to report sales as the primary constraint for their business, suggesting weakening demand is beginning to impact more businesses."
Leung said despite a greater proportion of businesses passing higher costs on by increasing their prices, profitability has weakened.
"Nonetheless, the pick-up in costs and prices points to high inflation persisting into 2023."
Speaking to some specific sectors, Leung said the architects’ measure of activity in their own office points to a continued softening in the pipeline of construction work over the coming year.
"The pipeline of housing and commercial construction for the coming year continues to decline, while that for Government construction work has moderated. These results suggest construction activity, especially residential construction, will start to ease over the second half of 2023."
The retail sector is also feeling very downbeat, she says.
A net 76% of retailers are expecting a deterioration in economic conditions over the coming months.
"The weaker demand is limiting the ability of retailers to increase prices in the face of intense cost pressures, which has reduced profitability in the retail sector.
"With almost half of mortgages due for repricing over the coming year, many of those mortgages will be rolling off historically low fixed-term mortgage rates of around 2% to 3% on to significantly higher rates of 6% to 7%.
"Consequently, substantially higher mortgage repayments should drive a slowing in retail spending over the coming year."
•The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research has conducted its Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion since 1961. It is New Zealand’s longest-running business opinion survey. Each quarter NZIER asks around 4,300 firms about whether business conditions will deteriorate, stay the same, or improve. The responses yield information about business trends much faster than official statistics and act as valuable leading indicators about the future state of the New Zealand economy.
188 Comments
Not really, even the fish & chippies are being screwed over by Labour
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/food-drink/130902549/cheap-as-chips-…
Can’t spin out of this one. This is a damning indictment, a vote of no confidence in this government by NZ businesses across the board. Worst one recorded in sixty years. Perhaps this government, always slow to wake up to anything, now realise that NZ businesses don’t like them because it has been made clear to them in no uncertain terms, that Labour doesn’t like them either.
Well it should be pointed out that the “sentiment” reading has been negative (expecting contraction) for most of the past two years, and the actual economic result was GDP expansion. One could very well make the argument that the sentiment survey is useless, especially as it instead more accurately seems to reflect the political bias of business owners (not a surprise), as it essentially just reflects which party is currently in power rather than being a good gauge for future economic activity (ie when national is in power, the sentiment survey trends positive, and when labour is in it trends negative, despite the resulting economic performance of the country not at all matching that pattern)..
Govt spend is not responsible for inflation and hasn't increased massively when compared to GDP
In the 2022 HYEFU, total crown spending jumped from 35.9% of GDP in 2019 to 43.6% in 2020 (7.7pp increase). It stayed at 42.0% in 2022, still 6.1pp higher than 2019 levels. Not massive, eh?
The same update says government fiscal decisions impact public consumption (government expenditure) and indirectly impact household consumption and business investments. Therefore, a net reduction in public demand helps to cool inflation.
Businesses lack confidence because the environment they work in is rooted!
Businesses lack confidence because the economy is in bad shape.
Businesses lack confidence because they see sales falling, costs increasing and profitability lessening.
who are the Main influencers of these negative influencers that we the people can change....
1. Grant Robertson
2. Adrian Orr
Other influencers we cannot change, but the government can...
3, overseas influencers ( imports, freight issues, oil, workers ...)
Who is in charge of the bove and can make the changes but because of thier socialist/;green/ ideological stupidity cannot see the damage they have / continue to cause!
JACINDA ARDERN
And who controls Ardern...
The Maori Caucus.
Starting to feel this state of malaise may well be the thing that nixes hopes of another round of pay increases and rights the ship as far as the OCR goes and RBNZ is concerned. Which would really be quite telling, as it would be a de facto 7% haircut on incomes, borne by those who do not receive any other inflation-adjusted benefit to compensate, that actually did the trick. But when you put it like that, it almost sounds like a bad thing, so we probably just won't talk about it.
The Office UK version. David Brent about to announce branch merger and layoffs.
"I've got some good news and some bad news. The good news is that I've been promoted."
It does remind me of the NZ govt and seems common among MFAT and NZTE (where some of the plum jobs are).
Literally, should have plenty of milk and honey but the cost of a block of cheese makes me wonder. I guess the farmers gotta pay the fart tax somehow.
I guess once our dairy producers can't compete with international prices we may have excess domestic supply again.
I stopped buying Thai when the Chicken and cashew hit $24.90. I stopped buying beer when Macs IPA went over $23/dozen from Pak n Save. And I'm one of those privileged freeholders creeping into the top tax bracket.
Kiwis are consumers. No wonder so many struggle. Can't budget, can't plan and expect to have everything including avocado on toast, meals out, netflix/SKY and sun glasses that cost god-knows-what.
2002 Honda Jazz going well, 190,000km on the clock.
Time to splash out on that dream car before you croak. My last one got sold at 232,000km it was time to buy my first ever new car before the emissions regulations stuff that up totally. You literally have a window of 1 to 2 years now before the fun police put an end to it.
For carving the now rather rare, quiet, well formed twisty bits of road free of police supervision, nope, The tesla shows how much of a fat arse it has when you start trying to throw it into corner with anything less than great road surface/ grip conditions. Although I must admit I haven't tried setting the Tesla up at all, dropping tyre pressures 8 psi or so would be the first step for some corner carving action.
But at pretty much all all other times, yep. 1300km+ trip (Akl to Welly and back) next week in the Tesla, have done this trip many times in the old 6 spd Vtec screamer, and the Tesla is the better car for it, and for the morning commute.
Call Tesla, sit back and watch Netflix in Air-conditioned comfort while they bring you a loan wheel and change it for you. Half the drivers on the road don't know how to change a tyre these days, so you're better off letting them get someone trained to do it than find the car coming towards you down the road is impersonating a Robin Relaint and there is an errant wheel heading your way.
Haha, your mention of the old Reliant Robin made me think of this GIF -> https://media.tenor.com/ZBoMPCQvWrgAAAAd/race-robin.gif
Good luck with that, I'm just paranoid about flats, and I do know how to change a tyre; just helped a driving instructor in a Suzuki Vitara change a wheel, needed trolley jack as supplied jack would not lift the wheel off the ground.
And sitting in a parked car on the open road could give your Netflix a bad ending
Could've stopped at 7 words there mate. Guess you're never upgrading, abot a third of petrol cars come without spares these days.
I love watching luddites reach for every weak excuse why they'll never get an EV, it all comes down to fear for most of them, very few have any real sound reasons.
Funny thing. My primary focus is early retirement (12-18 months away) and I'm happy to forgo cars or any other depreciating assets of notable value. The upside is being able to read and train (run, ride etc) at my leisure alongside the annual European vacation when I retire.
I'm a sanctimonious prick but when I look at people in expensive cars I think "how much of their lives have they traded by having the Audi S5, Tesla etc and having to work longer to meet its costs."
To each their own.
Speaking of expensive depreciating assets. There was an article on the leasehold properties surrounding Cornwall Park, the renewals are coming up and 150k pa for lease cost is being talked about.
They say to rent the same house would cost you 65k, just over one-third
Its nuts the trust board can get away with charging this in a fair society
2002 Honda Jazz, great old car, apart from safety.
I hope you will not have an accident, and I do not mean it in a negative way but please pay a visit to https://www.ancap.com.au/
The Gnats know not to release their half good plans too far ahead of the election , lest Labour pinch them as their own ...
... the barking mad policies , boot camps ... that's already out there ... as was tax cuts for the rich ... geeez , they can be thick at times ...
The best economic plan would be one that urgently addresses our trade deficit before the chickens come home to roost and we are in real trouble.
To Winston's credit he did bang on about cranking up our exports. A pity he can't be trusted and so will be gone for good by year end.
I don't think they need to roll anything out, just let the economy keep going how it is and they get in by default. As the pain is only just beginning, of course there be a short term pain relief when Grant rolls out Tax cuts this year hoping people have the short term memory syndrome which gets them some votes at election time.
Well we have 21 days left apparently, even NZ gets a mention here.
There was never anything wrong with a dedicated MIQ, not only could it have saved us from multiple lockdowns that cost billions instead but an intelligent design could have been used between pandemics as emergency housing instead of us paying more billions on motels. The problem with this country is you have to invest up front and everything is running on a shoe string, there is no money and no foresight so we just lurch from one train wreck to the next. Notice I said next pandemic which is sure to happen and we are still in the same position we were for the Covid.
It wouldnt be for tourists, but to be able to repatriate citizens that were locked out of their country for 2 years. No tourist is going to quarantine for 2 weeks to be able to have a holiday (or quarantine another 2 weeks in order to get back into their home country).
Could have been done easily, just ship in "dongas" from Australia - that's how they house workers in mining camps, and how their Howard Springs quarantine base was set up. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipM0uObY3UDQS9RZZhWxvyKYu8YGSr5…
In addition to being used post pandemic for housing the homeless, it could also be used as a minimum security detention centre - and start sending some of these criminals back to jail. Two birds, one stone ....
All built in three months at a time when it was absolute chaos to get space on a shipping vessel, let alone have the ship want to sail to New Zealand.
The amount of cargo from China/Europe our company had dumped in Australia because it wasn't economical for the vessel to go via NZ. At least the "never happy brigade" will have something else wag finger at Labour about when these "dungas" arrive late.
National and Act, when they get elected this year, should not only refocus the Reserve Bank on price stability, as promised by both, but they should also sack Orr and put in charge somebody less woke, with a less over-inflated ego and more competence and much better focus on the real job that the RBNZ is supposed to do.
The only problem is that the necessary steps to get there go against the grain of their one announced policy to pump property speculation. I guess it won’t matter if you can deduct interest from your tax bill or not. if the interest on your mortgage is larger than the tax you pay you’re not getting a rebate.
All of Nationals tax policies are currently under review since November OCR increase "surprise", repealing the removal of the 39% bracket for starters. I'm not promoting Labour here, both as bad as each other currently. For a while I was on the fence, now I'm looking elsewhere for some sanity. I wouldn't get caught up thinking National will swoop in and "fix" things, it will almost definitely be more of the same painted a different colour.
Won't cost anything, as the amount of tax paid in FY 2024 will be unchanged from when interest was fully deductible. Thats because deducting 50% of mortgage interest at 6% pa is exactly the same as deducting 100% of mortgage interest at 3%. Those with no mortgage and those who bought new builds will likewise be unaffected by any repeal. There might be a small number of investors who bought houses post March 2021 who might benefit but I highly doubt they will be collectively paying $650m in tax. In other words, the financial modelling done pre OCR raises is as out of date as the Oxford Covid modelling that predicted 80,000 New Zealanders would die from covid. It also means that anyone pinning their hopes on National "saving" the property market are barking up the wrong tree. At best, it might encourage investors back into the market to absorb some of the supply and to house those that are currently languishing in emergency accommodation or are one of the 30,000 on the public housing waitlist.
The number of staff employed at the Reserve Bank since Labour took it over has doubled. Return the RBNZ back to its core job, sack the hundreds of people hired to undertake the new "diversity" work, and save money. Now repeat for every Govt department. The new Govt need to go full Elon Musk on Govt Depts and subsidiaries, I say give this job to David Seymour, lets see what small Govt really looks like. I suspect, like Twitter, we will notice no difference.
I think that the failure of a lot of unproductive, inefficient businesses dependent on an endless supply of cheap immigrant labor would be very healthy. This way we can focus our people, infrastructure and assets on what is going to benefit our country the most. That is the way any efficient business would operate. Do the government and the NZIER think this way also?
Now we are back into it for 2023, anecdotal observations from talking to clients and colleagues so far:
- Company selling a cladding product used in residential construction - Inquiry has simply dropped off a cliff. A few of their customers have gone bust owing them.
- Company manufacturing homeware for sale via various retailers - Client reports their retail partners have seen a big drop off in activity. Main loss is from 'impulse' purchasers buying on store credit, Q card etc. Cash buyers at the higher end of the market still active.
- Company selling a safety product to resi and commercial construction - More inquiries for product hire as opposed to sale. More inquiries from homeowners wanting to DIY as it's hard to get tradies in.
- Far more "open to work" badges popping up on LinkedIn.
- Friend in used car sales says it has slowed a lot (personally, I have a few cars on my watchlist to replace my partner's old beater and all are having prices cut).
- My own business, I am noticing it's taking longer to get paid. Having to have some awkward conversations that I'm not so used to having. Inquiries still relatively robust. I'll be looking to trim expenses so extend cash runway.
On the other hand, try going out for dinner or brunch or grabbing a takeaway coffee. Everything is packed to the rafters! Waited 15 mins yesterday for someone to open the lunch cabinet and get two scones out because the place was so busy.
Agreed. This cafe was understaffed, and the very friendly employee on the till made it clear the had just started.
Although hospo spending is probably one of the easiest things to cut from a household budget (for example I've largely replaced a morning coffee with a self-made one) paradoxically I believe it will be the "last man standing" because grabbing a coffee, or some sushi for lunch is a relatively small expense that doesn't hit too hard - versus buying a new TV or having the house repainted - and it's a small luxury you can enjoy and reward yourself with.
Edit - also agree with what Housemouse is saying about people out and about enjoying themselves in what feels like the first period of genuine normality in some time. Why not go out for lunch or dinner when your family is back from overseas or your friends are in town?
Also doesn't help that restaurant dining is getting ever so expensive now. We went out to our favourite spot the other night - one small starter, a main each and a drink was $120. That would have been about $90 only a year ago (off the top of my head). Food was excellent but at those prices I'm not surprised it was quieter than I seem to recall.
Went down the road to the trendy ice cream shop for dessert and it was heaving ... little luxuries win out. Got two desserts for less than the price of one at the restaurant.
Hospitality usually runs by employing young working holiday makers, and we don't have many of them because they have all gone to Australia. It takes 3 months to process a working holiday visa in NZ (blame Labour again), Australia does it in 24 hours. Australia opened their international border 8 months ahead of NZ (again, blame Labour for that too), and consequently they have soaked up all the staff - there are currently over 135,000 working holiday workers who have gone to Australia in 2022. They probably also applied to NZ for a WH visa but by the time they got approved they were happily settled in Australia, making better wages and enjoying a lower cost of living than if they come to NZ.
That UK recruiter was right when he said that no-one wants to come to NZ any more.
November 2021 had 9 billion of new mortgage lending to 23K borrowers. December 21 8 billion to 20 k borrowers. Interest rate in that period was 3.5% for 1y and 4% for 2 y fixed. Any of those 43k borrowers that didn't take at least the 2 year fixed is going to have a bad New Year handover.
I’ve seen nothing from National yet. Aside from the promise to undo most of Labours changes. I’m interested to see some depth (and numbers). The tactic seems obvious and predictable… get all the votes in from the cockroach class (landlords), and do very little else to stimulate the economy. Am I missing something here? I’m open to being enlightened….
...that we're still over half a year out from the election? Might I remind all that Ardern became leader of the Labour Party about two months out from the General Election. Not sure I'd expect Luxon to disappear but not unreasonable for them to keep their cards close to their chest at this stage.
The sitting Govt however have obligations to the wider community in a Ministerial capacity and shouldn't be playing politics with things like tax policies given the need for certainty, like a certain Finance Minister seems to want to do. Otherwise you can basically spend the last 12 months of a three year terms just foreshadowing the election and deferring any actual decision-making, by which point the policies you should have actioned months ago become part of a de facto election slush fund.
Probably why ACT bringing 10+ MPs in the coalition is the only way to keep National from turning into Labour-lite. Diverting funding away from bureaucracy and into frontline public services is in the ACT manifesto.
For example, the government has budgeted 11 billion in opex for the health centralisation and rebranding exercises. However, they instead are willing to cut services at the new Dunedin Hospital instead of funding a 110m capital increase request (1% of the rebranding cost).
Yvil… I think this election is different. People are looking for certainty in very uncertain times. In my opinion it would be prudent to gauge public feedback on some potential new policies. It’s going to be economically challenging come election time and to announce bad policy too close might cost gaff prone Luxon the win.
I think the Nats are just as weary of releasing policy with numbers attached in case there is a billion dollar hole in the figures like last time...they want to throw out policy at the last minute as a sound bite,reducing the amount of time for proper analysis.Rangi Goldsmith has been doing remedial maths for the last few years in preparation.
This sums up Nationals plan for the economy….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rblfKREj50o
replace immigration with machine guns and a housing ponzi with the battlefield and you get the picture
if it wasn’t so sad it would be funny
You gotta love all the major political parties selection of finance spokes-people. Is this some kind of private joke amongst all the political parties? Some kind of back-room competition to select the most unqualified and useless candidate possible?
The Labour back-room guys managed to find a guy with a politics degree and zero business and finance experience, in fact, his predilection for printing money makes me wonder if he is carrying on the family business.
But wait, National have got someone with book-reading skills and zero business and finance knowledge.
and Act have found a social-awkward dude with some soldering skills.
I guess someone with a finance, economics or business background was too much to ask?
Isn't Seymour the finance spokesperson? He has a degree in electrical engineering.
You'd often see qualified engineers leave their hardcore technical roles for a career in finance. Many, with their logical brains coupled with on-the-job training, outperformed the top econ majors in financial/economic analysis.
I suppose all those years in coalition and on the crossbench arguing fiscal policy should make Seymour a decent candidate for the portfolio.
Also, ACT's deputy leader has a degree in econ.
Most of ACT's lineup actually have real world life experience in the portfolios they represent. It's part of the reason why they get my vote, because I see a party with competence and I'll take the bad with the good when it comes to their policies, also knowing full well that for the foreseeable future they're a coalition party so any radical "bad" policies will likely be tuned down when they co-govern.
Maybe its time that we stop treating the Deputy PM and Finance Ministry as the same thing. It seems they pick a person for one, and they automatically get the other. Winston made a good Deputy PM, and he was Foreign Minister (although I note he never actually got to leave the country as Jacinda did all the international travelling, so he spent most of his time as acting PM).
...firms continuing to report extreme difficulties in obtaining skilled and unskilled labour, and with labour shortages still the major constraint on boosting production.
That's kind of the kicker here, whenever we have face difficulties over the last three decades labour has been the shock absorber keeping inflation low and allowing the everything bubble to expand. However demographic changes mean Labour is in very short supply.
It's the usual:
- Blame them for all the bad stuff that happens, "no-no-no-no there's no excuses guys you can't blame global factors"
- Don't let them take credit for all the good outcomes "global factors and other things out of their control gave us this good result".
Yes, Davos this week I think. Ardern definitely on the short list to rise to the top there.
Back to the trenches, so far, lots of talk. Let's wait a bit for some action & see what happens. The scenarios from here are many, so no point playing your aces just yet. No one knows for sure what it will be come election time. In fact, no one knows for sure if there'll be an election with this current crowd in power.
Why need an economic plan? Isn't the economy booming and thus therefore we need to raise record breaking interest rates to tame inflation and manually create a recession? This as a result causes house prices to plummet (which is also what they want right? affordable housing for all?)
Record breaking economy, High GDP, Low Unemployment, housing prices plummeting! All promises made!
I don't understand. Labour is doing everything right! Arden for 4 more years!
-7
That is a problem for National . While everyone may moan about a downturn , a few months ago they were all saying it was necessary , and few would say the house price increase economy was sustainable.
They have to convince middle NZ that Labour has really stuffed up the economy, because Labour beats them on most other policy areas. Maybe not crime , but how much of middle NZ really think a few bootcamps is the answer?
Residential construction 'ease', gone over the cliff more like! My p/m2 build rate has dropped from $4,100 to $2,900. Got to fire one poor performing sub trade and replace them with ease.
But many great tradies are hurting. Work their butts off, bought new toys and now struggling for forwards work. Not all their fault either, someone opened up land available, put rockets on cheap cash and nuclear energised overly inflated profits that went to the land-holders and select others.
the best way to make prices, especially house construction, cheaper ....
a deep recession..
post the last GFC house builds dropped from 2.5k per SqM down to 1.5k per SqM as builders and suppliers lessened their huge margins to get work.
I remember getting quotes and requote " sharpened" as builders shored up work to keep the " hounds from the doors"
Bring it on and the government shouldn't interfere... As they just make it worse!!!
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