OCR
Markets remain in a holding pattern ahead of key US CPI release. Much higher than expected US PPI in April, but only a short-lived market reaction, given downward revisions. Biden announces range of tariffs on Chinese imports
15th May 24, 8:11am
Markets remain in a holding pattern ahead of key US CPI release. Much higher than expected US PPI in April, but only a short-lived market reaction, given downward revisions. Biden announces range of tariffs on Chinese imports
Consolidation everywhere as markets await US CPI. Various NZ economic data released continued the recent theme of an economy going backwards and inflation pressure receding
14th May 24, 7:33am
Consolidation everywhere as markets await US CPI. Various NZ economic data released continued the recent theme of an economy going backwards and inflation pressure receding
Influential RBNZ survey shows another decisive drop in the expectation of future levels of inflation in a result that will give the RBNZ comfort ahead of its Official Cash Rate decision next week
13th May 24, 3:41pm
20
Influential RBNZ survey shows another decisive drop in the expectation of future levels of inflation in a result that will give the RBNZ comfort ahead of its Official Cash Rate decision next week
US treasury yields moved higher, despite weak consumer sentiment data, as inflation expectations rose. Currency markets were broadly stable. The CAD outperformed after strong labour market data reduced the chance of a June rate cut there
13th May 24, 7:28am
US treasury yields moved higher, despite weak consumer sentiment data, as inflation expectations rose. Currency markets were broadly stable. The CAD outperformed after strong labour market data reduced the chance of a June rate cut there
Much weaker than expected US initial jobless claims figures triggered lower US Treasury yields and a weaker USD, although moves have been modest. The BoE signalled a rate cut was soon coming
10th May 24, 7:47am
Much weaker than expected US initial jobless claims figures triggered lower US Treasury yields and a weaker USD, although moves have been modest. The BoE signalled a rate cut was soon coming
Global markets confined to narrow ranges in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. Comments that the BoJ is watching the impact of the weak yen on inflation failed to provide support
9th May 24, 7:42am
Global markets confined to narrow ranges in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. Comments that the BoJ is watching the impact of the weak yen on inflation failed to provide support
US Treasury yields continue to edge lower, with the 10-year rate down to a four-week low. The USD is stronger. A slightly less hawkish than expected RBA policy update sent Australian rates and the AUD lower
8th May 24, 8:13am
US Treasury yields continue to edge lower, with the 10-year rate down to a four-week low. The USD is stronger. A slightly less hawkish than expected RBA policy update sent Australian rates and the AUD lower
RBA policy update later today. Global rates are slightly lower. Yen weaker after last week’s strong recovery. Oil flat amidst ceasefire proposal talk for Gaza
7th May 24, 7:29am
RBA policy update later today. Global rates are slightly lower. Yen weaker after last week’s strong recovery. Oil flat amidst ceasefire proposal talk for Gaza
US labour market data the services ISM were weaker than expected. This rekindled hopes for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year which underpinned equities. US treasury yields declined sharply but rebounded off lows
6th May 24, 7:37am
1
US labour market data the services ISM were weaker than expected. This rekindled hopes for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year which underpinned equities. US treasury yields declined sharply but rebounded off lows
US Treasury yields fall further in the aftermath of the Fed's policy update; US 10-year rate down to 4.57%, first rate cut fully priced brought forward to November. Yen strengthens in the aftermath of further official intervention
3rd May 24, 7:44am
US Treasury yields fall further in the aftermath of the Fed's policy update; US 10-year rate down to 4.57%, first rate cut fully priced brought forward to November. Yen strengthens in the aftermath of further official intervention
The Fed’s policy update brought no surprises and little initial market reaction, but US rates and the USD fell when Powell said a rate hike "unlikely". NZ jobless rate rose to 3-year high, as expected, so little net market reaction
2nd May 24, 7:39am
1
The Fed’s policy update brought no surprises and little initial market reaction, but US rates and the USD fell when Powell said a rate hike "unlikely". NZ jobless rate rose to 3-year high, as expected, so little net market reaction
Softer labour market data won’t be enough to make the RBNZ cut the OCR before late 2024 or 2025, bank economists say
1st May 24, 3:56pm
7
Softer labour market data won’t be enough to make the RBNZ cut the OCR before late 2024 or 2025, bank economists say
Unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in the March quarter from 4%, just exceeding the Reserve Bank’s expectations
1st May 24, 10:56am
81
Unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in the March quarter from 4%, just exceeding the Reserve Bank’s expectations
Stronger than expected US employment cost data raises concerns that sticky wage inflation could further delay the Fed’s rate cutting cycle and weighed on risk sentiment
1st May 24, 7:45am
Stronger than expected US employment cost data raises concerns that sticky wage inflation could further delay the Fed’s rate cutting cycle and weighed on risk sentiment
JPY in focus, after the yen crated before strongly rebounding, with signs of official intervention to support the currency. The USD is broadly weaker. Global rates modestly lower
30th Apr 24, 7:49am
JPY in focus, after the yen crated before strongly rebounding, with signs of official intervention to support the currency. The USD is broadly weaker. Global rates modestly lower
Global asset markets ended last week on a positive note. The S&P advanced 1% following upbeat earnings. US PCE core deflator data was in line with consensus estimates. The yen remained under pressure
29th Apr 24, 7:33am
Global asset markets ended last week on a positive note. The S&P advanced 1% following upbeat earnings. US PCE core deflator data was in line with consensus estimates. The yen remained under pressure
An anti-Goldilocks US GDP report; weaker growth and higher inflation than expected. GDP up 1.6%, core PCE deflator up 3.7%. Rates market more focused on the inflation story, seeing a further paring of US rate cut expectations
26th Apr 24, 8:07am
An anti-Goldilocks US GDP report; weaker growth and higher inflation than expected. GDP up 1.6%, core PCE deflator up 3.7%. Rates market more focused on the inflation story, seeing a further paring of US rate cut expectations
Investor risk appetite recovers underpinning global equities as market looks ahead to earnings reports from US Big Tech. Treasury yields fell alongside the US dollar, following weaker than expected preliminary US PMIs
24th Apr 24, 7:51am
Investor risk appetite recovers underpinning global equities as market looks ahead to earnings reports from US Big Tech. Treasury yields fell alongside the US dollar, following weaker than expected preliminary US PMIs
Risk appetite higher with US equities rebounding. Commodity currencies outperform. NZD consolidating above the 0.59 mark and flat to higher on the key major cross rates
23rd Apr 24, 7:47am
Risk appetite higher with US equities rebounding. Commodity currencies outperform. NZD consolidating above the 0.59 mark and flat to higher on the key major cross rates
Investor risk sentiment recovered after Iran played down the damage following retaliatory strikes by Israel. Safe haven flows into US treasuries and defensive currencies reversed. NZD/USD recovered from 2024 lows but then lost traction
22nd Apr 24, 7:21am
Investor risk sentiment recovered after Iran played down the damage following retaliatory strikes by Israel. Safe haven flows into US treasuries and defensive currencies reversed. NZD/USD recovered from 2024 lows but then lost traction
US equities down modestly; US Treasury yields have pushed higher, with a stronger Philly Fed survey and hawkish Fed-speak not helping
19th Apr 24, 7:31am
US equities down modestly; US Treasury yields have pushed higher, with a stronger Philly Fed survey and hawkish Fed-speak not helping
Modest risk-off tone in the air; US equities weaker, US Treasury yields lower, credit spreads wider and oil prices weaker. NZD and AUD the best performers. Rates rise post-CPI
18th Apr 24, 7:50am
1
Modest risk-off tone in the air; US equities weaker, US Treasury yields lower, credit spreads wider and oil prices weaker. NZD and AUD the best performers. Rates rise post-CPI
[updated]
March annual inflation comes in higher than RBNZ expected while rent prices climb to highest rate since at least 1999
17th Apr 24, 10:57am
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March annual inflation comes in higher than RBNZ expected while rent prices climb to highest rate since at least 1999
US Fed Chair Powell signals high rates for longer due to persistent inflation. 2-year US treasury yields reach 5%, the highest level since November. China set a weaker than expected daily yuan reference rate hurting commodity currencies
17th Apr 24, 8:02am
1
US Fed Chair Powell signals high rates for longer due to persistent inflation. 2-year US treasury yields reach 5%, the highest level since November. China set a weaker than expected daily yuan reference rate hurting commodity currencies
Markets continue to trade with a cautious tone, with Israel vowing to retaliate against Iran’s weekend attack. US equities down about 1%; oil prices barely lower. US Treasury yields reach fresh 2024 highs
16th Apr 24, 7:51am
Markets continue to trade with a cautious tone, with Israel vowing to retaliate against Iran’s weekend attack. US equities down about 1%; oil prices barely lower. US Treasury yields reach fresh 2024 highs